eBay (EBAY) Is Down 6.7% After Rejecting GameStop Merger And Closing Depop Deal - Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In late July, eBay closed its US$1.40 billion acquisition of Depop from Etsy, while also rolling out a public fee schedule for eBay Live and expanding features like Extended Bidding in Australia, even as organized fraud rings misused the eBay Motors name off-platform.
• At the same time, eBay’s board rejected GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen’s unsolicited US$56 billion merger proposal, leaving GameStop with a near-10% equity stake and adding a new corporate drama alongside analyst concerns about competitive pressures and higher Depop-related marketing costs.
• We’ll now examine how the Depop-driven spending concerns highlighted in recent analyst downgrades may reshape eBay’s existing investment narrative.

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eBay Investment Narrative Recap

To own eBay today, you need to believe its core marketplace and higher value categories can offset rising competition and heavier Depop-related spending. The main near term catalyst is execution around Depop integration and marketing, which recent analyst downgrades flag as a source of profit pressure. The biggest current risk is that higher customer acquisition costs in recommerce fail to translate into durable GMV growth. The Cohen merger drama and fraud-ring headlines do not materially change that focus.

Among the recent announcements, the US$1.40 billion Depop acquisition is most relevant. It directly ties into concerns that eBay will need materially higher marketing and promotion to defend share against rivals like Vinted, with several brokers already cutting earnings estimates on this basis. How Depop is integrated, scaled and monetized now sits at the center of both the bull case around recommerce growth and the bear case around margin dilution.

Yet behind the Depop story, investors should also be aware of intensifying fashion resale competition and what that could mean for eBay’s long term relevance and pricing power...

Read the full narrative on eBay (it's free!)

eBay’s narrative projects $13.4 billion revenue and $2.5 billion earnings by 2029.

Uncover how eBay's forecasts yield a $110.76 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts already assumed only about 3.7% annual revenue growth to roughly US$13.0 billion, so their more cautious view on competition and Depop spending might need to be revisited in light of these latest developments.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on eBay - why the stock might be worth as much as 34% more than the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your eBay research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free eBay research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate eBay's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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