Berenberg Tweaks Fresnillo Model After H1 Report; Hold Rating Kept

09:07 AM EDT, 08/05/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg updated its Fresnillo (FRES.L) model following the precious metals group's first-half results, with analysts saying that there is "not enough to get excited about." "If we take a step back, while the company is progressing a range of growth projects, those that offer material growth to volumes are longer-dated, and we find ourselves continuing to prefer exposure to Endeavour Mining (EDV.L) from a large-cap pure-play precious metals miner perspective. The results themselves were somewhat light versus our estimates (mainly due to the top line), and the dividend of USD0.434 per share was below consensus estimates of USD0.60 per share," according to a Wednesday note. The research firm forecasts a final dividend of $1.01 per share for 2026 and $1.40 per share for 2027, below consensus' per-share estimates of $1.37 and $1.86, respectively. "Our more conservative view is driven by our expectation that capital projects, which will ramp up spending over the next five years and beyond, will act as a call on cash-flow and we think that Fresnillo's conservative management team will elect to preserve cash for the spend." Subsequently, Berenberg lowered its sales, EBIT, and EPS projections for 2026, while those for 2027 and 2028 were raised. It also trimmed its EV/EBITDA multiple to 6x from 8x, reflecting "a more tempered growth profile." The stock's hold rating was left unchanged, while its price target was reduced to 29.00 pounds sterling from 33.00 pounds.