The memory shortage may continue until 2027! Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron sold out of production capacity ahead of schedule

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to technology media reports on Tuesday, the tight supply of memory chips is expected to continue until 2027. Industry sources revealed that the three major memory manufacturers have basically completed next year's capacity allocation negotiations. In short, Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (SKHY.US), and Micron (MU.US) have all sold out of their estimated memory supply in 2027, and there are no plans for additional production capacity.

According to the report, the three major suppliers have distributed all DRAM and HBM production capacity in 2027. The customer ended up receiving only 60% to 70% of the shipment volume they initially requested. Industry insiders pointed out that 2027 will enter the most severe phase of memory shortage. Shipment quantities have now been largely finalized, but final shipping pricing will be determined closer to delivery.

In terms of market share, according to Counterpoint Research's global memory tracking data, Samsung had a DRAM market share of 39% in the second quarter, ranking first; SK Hynix ranked second with 26%, but there was a marked decline from 39% in the same period last year; Micron followed with 25%.

Chinese memory chip manufacturer Changxin Storage (CXMT) recently went public and was favored by investors, competing on the same stage as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix. Last month, it was reported that Apple has begun testing DRAM chips stored by Changxin. Also, according to recent reports, major PC manufacturers have begun purchasing DRAM chips from Changxin Storage for some laptop models to cope with the ongoing shortage of memory.

In order to cope with tight supply, major memory chip manufacturers are actively expanding production: Samsung plans to expand production by 50%, SK Hynix is drastically increasing capital expenditure, promoting an IPO of US$26.5 billion and investment in South Korea's domestic industry of over US$880 billion, while Micron has promised to invest 250 billion US dollars in the US by 2035.

However, memory chip stocks collectively declined last month, partly due to market concerns that large-scale increases in production in the industry may eventually lead to oversupply, putting pressure on prices. This concern erupted intensively in July, pushing the hottest trading theme in 2026 into a technical bear market.

Black Monday on July 28 became a concentrated flashpoint. South Korea's KOSPI index plummeted by more than 10% in a single day, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both fell by more than 13% on the same day. This round of sell-off is not due to deteriorating fundamentals; quite the opposite, the three major memory manufacturers have repeatedly achieved new highs.

The market's concern is that the giants' plans to expand production are too aggressive. Samsung plans to expand production by 50%; SK Hynix announced that it will invest about 600 trillion won to expand DRAM production in the Yongin semiconductor cluster. The cluster construction, which was originally planned to be completed in 2045, will be completed 12 years ahead of schedule; Micron's capital expenditure for the 2026 fiscal year is expected to be about 27 billion US dollars, exceeding 10 billion US dollars in each quarter of fiscal year 2027.

Morningstar analysts warned that it will take 2 to 3 years for the production capacity of a new fab to be put into operation. When peak output and demand slows down, it will face a significant risk of oversupply.