China Investment Securities: Under pressure from a high base, the growth rate of personal insurance is steady, and the growth rate of property insurance is steady, leading insurers are expected to further expand their comparative advantage

The Zhitong Finance App learned that SDIC Securities released a research report saying that the current valuation of the insurance sector is still at a low level, and the market already has full expectations for low interest rates, a slowdown in premium growth, and asset-side fluctuations. The bank believes that if long-term interest rates remain stable and the equity market operates steadily, compounded by falling new debt costs and product structure optimization, insurers' profit and valuation pressure is expected to ease marginally. It is recommended to focus on life insurance leaders with steady debt-side growth and leading dividend insurance transformation, as well as financial insurance leaders with outstanding underwriting profitability and continuous optimization of business structures.

The main views of SDIC Securities are as follows:

Incident: H1 premiums maintained positive growth, Q2 growth slowed

From January to June 2026, the insurance industry achieved original insurance premium income of 3.86 trillion yuan, +3.2% year on year; of these, personal insurance companies' original insurance premium income was 2.87 trillion yuan, +3.6% year on year, and property insurance companies' original insurance premium income was 98 million yuan, +2.1% year over year. The monthly industry premiums in June were about 665.5 billion yuan, 1.4% year-on-year. The decline was slightly narrower than in May.

Personal insurance: Life insurance is still supported, and monthly premiums for high-base orders continue to be pressured

In terms of personal insurance companies, the cumulative total of life insurance, health insurance and accident insurance from January to June 2026 was +4.7%, 0.7%, and -10.9%, respectively; personal insurance premiums for a single month in June were about 478.8 billion yuan, -2.5% year on year, which is slightly narrower than the decline in May. The bank expects that the effects of anticipated demand adjustments in the same period last year, the low sales season in Q2, and bank insurance channel adjustments will jointly suppress short-term growth.

Property insurance: Auto insurance policies are growing monthly, and non-car insurance continues to contribute the main increase

In terms of property insurance companies, car insurance premiums from January to June 2026 were 45.4 billion yuan, which was basically the same as year on year. Non-car insurance premiums were 534.3 billion yuan, +3.9% year on year; in June, property insurance premiums were about 186.7 billion yuan, +1.5% year over year, of which car insurance was +1.0% year over year, continuing marginal repairs. Vehicle insurance improvements reflect demand for renewal of stocks and support from changes in the NEV structure. Liability insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance have maintained relatively rapid growth, while non-car insurance is gradually shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement in the context of strengthened cost regulations and underwriting discipline.

Industry judgment: short-term pace fluctuations will not change medium- to long-term resilience on the debt-side

After the scheduled interest rate stabilizes in the short term, it is difficult to replicate pulsed sales driven by centralized sales suspensions. Life insurance growth is expected to rely more on normalized customer acquisition, dividend insurance transformation, and channel efficiency improvements; financial insurance growth is expected to remain stable, and follow-up attention will be paid to changes in underwriting quality, payout rates, and fee rates. The bank anticipates that leading insurers are expected to further expand their comparative advantage with brands, channels, products and asset management capabilities.

Risk warning: Long-term interest rates have declined beyond expectations, the equity market has fluctuated greatly, residents' insurance demand falls short of expectations, changes in regulatory policies, etc.