ZOZO, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 16%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

ZOZO, Inc. (TSE:3092) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.6% to JP¥1,139 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥56b, although statutory earnings per share came in 16% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥13.45 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ZOZO's 17 analysts is for revenues of JP¥241.9b in 2027. This reflects a satisfactory 4.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 5.9% to JP¥58.18. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥242.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥57.97 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for ZOZO

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥1,223, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic ZOZO analyst has a price target of JP¥1,700 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥880. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 6.6% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.0% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that ZOZO is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ZOZO's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple ZOZO analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for ZOZO that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.