Before Trump decided on refined copper tariffs, a large amount of copper poured into the US! In July, imports hit a new high for at least 12 years, and global inventories continued to shift to the US

The Zhitong Finance App learned that at a time when US President Trump is about to decide whether to levy tariffs on imported refined copper, global copper trade is flowing rapidly to the US. According to the data, the US imported about 200,000 tons of copper in July, setting the highest record in a single month since IHS Markit began statistics in 2014, and the fastest import rate in at least 12 years.

Currently, about 110,900 tons of copper are stored in US ports outside the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse receipt system. Market participants pointed out that behind the continued increase in US copper inventories, stocks from other regions of the world are constantly being pulled out. Since this year, inventory in LME warehouses outside the US has declined markedly as traders transfer copper resources to the US to obtain higher selling prices.

Notably, although the June 30 deadline for US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick to submit tariff proposals has passed, the White House has yet to announce the final policy. Producers, consumers, and traders are closely watching whether Trump will further extend current trade protection measures for semi-finished copper products to refined raw materials such as copper.

Meanwhile, the price of copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) is still significantly higher than the price of LME copper, and continues to maintain an arbitrage window conducive to imports to the US. According to the data, the average price difference between COMEX's recent monthly copper futures and LME spot copper in July exceeded 350 US dollars per ton, which is enough to cover transportation costs and attract the continuous flow of overseas copper resources into the US.

Driven by tariff expectations, US official COMEX copper stocks have increased by more than 40% since this year, reaching a record high. Currently, the market generally estimates that the total inventory of copper in the US has exceeded 1 million tons. The market believes that in the context of rapid development of power grid construction, artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles, and defense industries, copper is becoming an increasingly important strategic resource for the US, and tariff expectations are objectively driving the US to establish strategic inventories ahead of schedule.

However, no timetable has yet been announced for when the Trump administration will make a final decision on whether to levy tariffs on refined copper.

There are clear differences in market opinions on taxation issues. Proponents believe that raising import tariffs will help promote investment in copper mining and smelting in the US; opponents believe that this move will increase the costs of manufacturers that rely on imported copper raw materials and weaken the international competitiveness of products made in the US. Currently, the US has imposed 50% tariffs on semi-finished copper products and copper derivatives.

Market participants believe that if Trump finally decides to tax refined copper, the last round of import peaks may occur before the tariffs are officially implemented; if the plan is abandoned, the large inventory and arbitrage positions accumulated over the past 18 months may be quickly liquidated, and the flow of global copper trade will also be readjusted.

In fact, tariff expectations have dominated the global copper market trend over the past year, and have repeatedly pushed New York copper prices higher than London copper prices. In July of last year, Trump asked Lutnick to study whether a 15% tariff should be levied on imported refined copper in stages starting January 2027.

Meanwhile, the London market also showed signs of tightening supply. Currently, LME spot copper is about 65 US dollars per ton of water compared to three-month copper, which is the highest level since January this year. The “spot rise” structure presented by the market usually means that short-term spot supply is tight, and it also reflects the continued concentration of global copper resources in the US.