UBP says Fed silence lifts long-end Treasury yields, pressures dollar

• Union Bancaire Privee flagged a jump in long-end yields as the Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% with little guidance, weakening the dollar.
• Curve steepened; 10-year Treasuries ended at 4.73% while 30-year yields hit year-to-date highs, near mid-2007 levels.
• Fed vote split 9-3 with three hawkish dissents for a 25-bp hike; markets price roughly a two-in-three chance of September tightening.
• Global equities rose despite higher-for-longer pricing; MSCI ACWI total return gained 1.4% as earnings strength offset rate headwinds.
• FX volatility rose; Japan intervened with over USD 50 billion, pushing USD/JPY from just below 164 to around 158.

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