Berenberg: Chinese Antitrust Approval Key to Anglo American Stock Outperformance

05:51 AM EDT, 08/03/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg anticipates Anglo American's (AAL.L, AGL.JO) stock will trade in line with the market until Chinese regulators approve the mining giant's merger with Canada's Teck Resources. "Management gave little away on any strategic decisions regarding AngloTeck, and this is no surprise. When the deal closes, we would imagine that as the market digests the uplift in earnings and the (perhaps) attractive equity valuation, there is scope for a share price 'pop', particularly given that Anglo American trades on 8.8x 2026E EBITDA today, so the market is almost certainly pricing in some value uplift from the Teck deal," according to a July 31 note. "However, we think it will take some time for an updated strategy as a combined business to be communicated to the market, whether this be growth strategy (eg on certain Teck copper assets) or dividend policy. We also think that the core drivers of volume uplift after the inorganic merger increase will be more like a 2030 story (Collahuasi and Los Bronces, both Chile) due to permitting," analysts added. On the earnings side, the research firm updated its model to account for Anglo American's first-half earnings, noting the better-than-expected EBITDA was primarily bolstered by by-products. As such, Berenberg's sales, EBIT and EPS projections for full-year 2026 to 2028 were raised. Analysts also edged up the stock's price target to 42 pounds sterling from 41 pounds, with an unchanged hold rating.