China Merchants Securities: Approving the opening of the peak of normalized nuclear power production

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that on July 31, the National Standing Committee decided to approve four nuclear power projects including the Zhuanghe Phase I in Liaoning, and a total of 8 nuclear power units, with a total installed capacity of about 10.48 million kilowatts, and continued to maintain a high level of approval. The bank believes that the top-level design clearly and actively develops nuclear power in a safe and orderly manner in the form of laws and plans. From 2026 to 2030, China is expected to enter the peak production period, and nuclear power operators are more flexible in their installations; in the context of large-scale application of three generations of autonomous technology, the entire industry chain is expected to usher in a boom cycle and is optimistic about the investment value of nuclear power operators in the long term.

The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:

Top-level design promotes active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power

China resumed approval of nuclear power projects in 2019, and approved no less than 10 units for four consecutive years from 2022 to 2025. A total of 8 units were approved this time, maintaining a high level of approval. At the policy level, the Atomic Energy Law officially came into effect in January 2026. For the first time, basic and comprehensive laws were used to clarify the active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power, encourage advanced reactor applications, and cover the nuclear fuel cycle, spent fuel treatment, radioactive waste, decommissioning and comprehensive utilization; the “15th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of a New Energy System” and the “Fifteenth Five-Year” Carbon Peak Action Plan are proposed, and the installed capacity of nuclear power in operation will reach about 110 million kilowatts in 2030. By the end of June 2026, China will have 62 commercial nuclear power units with an installed capacity of 66.14 million kilowatts, corresponding to about 44 million kilowatts of production space in the next four years. Nuclear power is expected to usher in a “double peak” of construction and operation.

2026-2030 will enter the peak production period, and nuclear power operators are more flexible in their installations

China Nuclear Power: 2027 is about to reach its peak of production. By the end of June, the company held 27 nuclear power units in operation, with an installed capacity of 262.12 million kilowatts, 18 units under construction and approval, with an installed capacity of 206.75 million kilowatts. Among them, Tianwan 7 and Hainan Xiaodui are expected to be put into operation in 2026, with a total installed capacity of 1.39 million kilowatts. It is expected that 4/2/3/1 units will be put into operation from 2027 to 2030, corresponding to the addition of 504/256.5/371.5/1,215,000 kilowatts per year, with an installed capacity increase of 18%/8%/11%/3%; if all the units are put into operation according to the plan, the installed nuclear power installed by the company will reach 40.138 million kilowatts by 2030, an increase of 13.926 million kilowatts, an increase of 53.1% over the current period. In 2027, Sanmen No. 3, No. 4, Tianwan No. 8, and Xudabao No. 3 will be put into operation, and the company will reach its first peak of production.

China General Nuclear Power: 2030 will reach its peak of production. By the end of June, the company managed 30 nuclear power plants in operation, with an installed capacity of 34.248 million kilowatts, 18 units under construction and approval, with an installed capacity of 21.812 million kilowatts. Of these, Huizhou No. 2 is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2026, with an installed capacity of 1.02 million kilowatts. It is expected that 2/1/5 new units will be put into operation from 2027 to 2030, corresponding to an increase of 241/120/121/6.12 million kilowatts per year, with an installed capacity increase of 7%/3%/3%/15%; if all the units are put into operation according to the plan, the company will manage 46.392 million kilowatts of installed nuclear power by 2030, an increase of 35.5% over the current period. In 2030, Lufeng No. 1, No. 2, Huizhou No. 3, Ningde No. 6, and Cangnan No. 3 will be put into centralized operation.

Continuing a high approval volume, the industry embraces a boom cycle

China's autonomous third-generation nuclear power technology has moved from demonstration projects to large-scale application. Among them, “Hualong 1” has entered the multi-site batch construction stage, and “Guo-1” is moving from a demonstration project to standardization and batch promotion. Eight units have been approved this time, and there is still a possibility of a second batch of approval within the year, and it is expected that the normal pace of approval of 10 or more units will be maintained. The bank pointed out that the three highlights of this approval: the Jinqimen Phase II and Taipingling Phase III use the “Hualong 1 Technology Fusion Solution 2.0”, which uses advanced technology in intelligent control, modular construction, etc.; Laiyang Phase I uses “Guo-1” technology for high-power non-dynamic pressure water reactors, which is the first batch construction project of “Guoyi” after the Shandong Rongcheng demonstration project; the first phase of the Zhuanghe Nuclear Power Project has been approved for the first time, and the first phase uses the “Hualong 1” technology, which is currently being built in batches, and it is expected that China will further expand its nuclear power project There is room for long-term electricity growth.

Risk Alerts

Risk of safe and stable operation of nuclear power units; risk of project construction falling short of expectations; risk of falling electricity prices.