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Ma Wei, expert on American issues at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: As far as the effects are concerned, the short-term effects will be quite remarkable, but if analyzed from a long-term perspective, the effects are questionable. In April of this year, Japan interfered with the exchange rate with more than 70 billion US dollars in a single month, but the rebound in the exchange rate only took about a month, and by June it had risen again to over 160. The reason for this is essentially that the interest rate spread between the US and Japan remains at a large level. Japan's current policy interest rate is only around 1%, while the US has remained above 3.5%. At the same time, the Takaichi government continues to promote fiscal expansion and tax cuts. The market has also always been skeptical about Japan's fiscal discipline and room for interest rate hikes. However, at the interest rate meeting in July, although the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates, the market expects that within the next six months, the US is likely to start the process of raising interest rates again, and the spread between the US and Japan may once again widen to more than 2%. Analyzed from a medium- to long-term perspective, it is difficult to fundamentally change the downward trend of the yen exchange rate through joint intervention between the two countries.

Zhitongcaijing·08/03/2026 05:17:34
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Ma Wei, expert on American issues at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: As far as the effects are concerned, the short-term effects will be quite remarkable, but if analyzed from a long-term perspective, the effects are questionable. In April of this year, Japan interfered with the exchange rate with more than 70 billion US dollars in a single month, but the rebound in the exchange rate only took about a month, and by June it had risen again to over 160. The reason for this is essentially that the interest rate spread between the US and Japan remains at a large level. Japan's current policy interest rate is only around 1%, while the US has remained above 3.5%. At the same time, the Takaichi government continues to promote fiscal expansion and tax cuts. The market has also always been skeptical about Japan's fiscal discipline and room for interest rate hikes. However, at the interest rate meeting in July, although the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates, the market expects that within the next six months, the US is likely to start the process of raising interest rates again, and the spread between the US and Japan may once again widen to more than 2%. Analyzed from a medium- to long-term perspective, it is difficult to fundamentally change the downward trend of the yen exchange rate through joint intervention between the two countries.