Citibank: Xiaopeng Group-W (09868)'s non-GAAP net loss of RMB 1 billion for the second quarter is expected to fall short of expectations in the third quarter

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Citibank released a research report saying that Xiaopeng Group-W (09868) will announce the second-quarter results. The Group's non-GAAP net loss for the second quarter is expected to be about 1 billion yuan, comprehensive gross margin of about 20%, and automobile gross margin of about 12.5%. The bank maintains its “buy” rating, and the target price for H shares is HK$87.7.

Citi expects Xiaopeng to deliver a total of about 130,000 vehicles in the third quarter, which is lower than market expectations of 150,000 vehicles, mainly due to July deliveries that may be slightly lower than expected, plus the time required for L03 production to climb the slope, and the sales volume of L03 (gross margin over 10%) or encroachment on M03 (gross margin only in units). At the same time, the bank expected a slight decline in comprehensive gross margin from quarter to quarter, due to a decline in the share of non-automobile revenue, offsetting the positive impact of the improvement in the model portfolio.

Looking ahead to the fourth season, Citi's view is positive. GX, which has a gross margin of about 20%, will gradually improve its portfolio. The high-end model G9L (selling 5,000 units per month) will be launched in the fourth quarter, and the gross margin will also exceed 20%. In terms of exports, the share of exports in the fourth quarter is expected to increase from about 10% to 20% in the third quarter, and the average monthly export volume can increase from about 20,000 vehicles to 40,000 vehicles, which will significantly help profit visibility. The L05 will be launched in October this year, and exports are expected to begin in the 2027 fiscal year.