US stocks ushered in non-agricultural data and super earnings week: SpaceX (SPCX.US) listing debut begins, can AI companies' financial reports withstand market capitalization trials?

The Zhitong Finance App notes that in the coming week, the global market will welcome the release of US employment data, purchasing managers' index (PMI) data, and a new round of intensive US corporate earnings reports. The US will release the July Non-Farm Payroll Report, ADP employment data, and the ISM Index for manufacturing and services. Investors will use this to determine whether the US economy is still resilient and whether the Federal Reserve needs to further tighten monetary policy at the September meeting.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at the July meeting, but internal differences over the risk of inflation widened. Meanwhile, rising energy prices and core inflation remain above policy targets, further amplifying the impact of employment data on interest rate expectations. If employment growth in July is significantly stronger than expected, treasury bond yields and the US dollar may continue to rise; if the labor market cools down rapidly, the market focus may shift back from inflation to economic growth risks.

On the corporate side, the second-quarter earnings season for US stocks continued to advance. AI software company Palantir (PLTR.US), chip company AMD (AMD.US), SanDisk (SNDK.US), commercial space company SpaceX (SPCX.US), industrial equipment manufacturer Caterpillar (CAT.US), media entertainment group Disney (DIS.US), travel platform Uber (UBER.US), pharmaceutical giant LY.US (LY.US), cloud software company Datadog (DDOG.US), and online car-hailing platform Lyft (LYFT.US) will be announced one after another performance.

Among them, the financial reports of Palantir, AMD, SanDisk, and SpaceX will be an important window for the market to measure AI software demand, data center chip growth, and space economy valuation; while the performance of Disney, Uber, and Eli Lilly will provide new insights into the consumer, travel, and diet medicine markets.

Preview of key events

The US July Non-Farm Report is approaching, and expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike are facing repricing

On Friday (August 7), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July Non-Farm Payroll Report, which includes key indicators such as non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage.

The market currently expects the number of non-farm payrolls in the US to increase by about 91,000 in July, and the unemployment rate may rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. In contrast, the number of non-farm payrolls in the US increased by only 57,000 in June, indicating that employment growth has clearly slowed.

Investors will be watching whether the employment slowdown is a moderate cooling or an early sign of a sharp slowdown in economic growth. If employment growth and wage growth both exceed expectations, it may reinforce the reasons for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates; Treasury yields, the US dollar, and financial stocks may be supported, while overvalued technology stocks and gold may be under pressure.

Conversely, if the non-agricultural data falls far short of expectations and the unemployment rate rises more than market forecasts, investors may reduce their bets on the Fed's interest rate hike, but concerns about the recession may also limit the upside of US stocks. As a result, next week's market reaction will depend not only on strong or weak data, but also on whether investors are more concerned about inflation or economic growth.

The US ISM Index is being released centrally, and economic growth and price pressure are being tested

On Monday (August 3), the US will announce the ISM manufacturing index for July; on Wednesday (August 5), the US will also announce the ISM service index for July. According to the ISM release schedule, manufacturing reports are usually published on the first business day of each month, while service sector reports are published on the third business day.

For manufacturing data, the market will focus on new orders, employment, and production sub-indices to determine whether corporate investment and commodity demand can continue to expand. The price payment index is also worth paying attention to; in the context of rising international oil prices and transportation costs, the indicator may influence the market's judgment on whether commodity inflation is heating up again.

The service sector accounts for a larger share of US economic activity, which means that service sector employment and price sub-indices may have a greater impact on the Federal Reserve's policy expectations. If manufacturing and service indices continue to expand at the same time and price pressure continues to rise, the market may further raise expectations for this year's interest rate hike.

AI earnings are facing a critical test, Palantir, AMD, and SanDisk are about to be released

After US stocks close on Monday (August 3), Palantir will release financial results for the second quarter.

The market will focus on US commercial revenue, government business growth, new orders from its AI platform (AIP), and whether management raises guidance throughout the year. Palantir is still one of the most highly valued companies in the US AI software sector; therefore, even if revenue and profit continue to grow, order volume, remaining performance obligations (RPO), and whether future growth can support its current valuation will still determine the stock price trend after the earnings report. Palantir has confirmed that it will announce results after the US stock market closes on August 3.

After US stocks close on Tuesday (August 4), AMD will release financial results for the second quarter.

Investors will focus on data center revenue, AI accelerator shipments, server processor demand, and changes in gross margins. As technology companies continue to invest more in AI infrastructure, the market hopes to see AMD win more orders in the AI chip market and gradually narrow the gap with industry leaders.

If AI chip revenue and guidance for the second half of the year exceed market expectations, AMD's earnings report may boost the entire semiconductor sector; if order growth, product delivery, or gross margin performance fall short of expectations, it may increase investors' concerns about the return on AI capital expenditure.

After the US stock market closes on Wednesday (August 5), SanDisk will release financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of the 2026 fiscal year.

The market will focus on SanDisk's fourth-quarter revenue, adjusted earnings per share and gross margin performance, and management's latest guidance on NAND flash memory prices, market supply and demand, and product shipments for the new fiscal year. As demand for high-capacity storage in AI servers and data centers continues to grow, revenue changes in enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs), data center products, and high-end NAND products will be an important indicator for evaluating the quality of SanDisk's growth.

SpaceX welcomed its first financial report after listing, and the focus was on Starlink and cash flow

SpaceX will also release its first quarterly earnings report since listing after the US stock market closes on Tuesday, making it one of the most anticipated corporate events next week.

The market will focus on the number of Starlink users, satellite internet revenue, rocket launch frequency, government contracts, and Starship project expenses. Given that SpaceX's stock price fluctuated greatly after listing, this first earnings report will help investors assess whether the company's business model, profitability, and cash flow can support its high valuation.

In addition to revenue and profits, management comments on Starlink's growth, Starship testing progress, space data centers, and AI-related businesses may also influence market sentiment. If the company can show stable cash flow and a clear commercialization path, the stock price may be supported; however, if capital expenditure and R&D expenses continue to grow rapidly, the market may pay more attention to financing needs and potential stock supply pressure.

Consumer, medical and industrial leaders are about to release financial reports

On Tuesday, Caterpillar will release its second-quarter earnings report. The market will observe changes in global infrastructure construction, mining investment, and industrial demand through its three major sectors: construction industry, resource industry, and energy and transportation.

Investors will also focus on the impact of raw materials, tariffs, and transportation costs on profit margins. If orders, dealer inventory, and year-round guidance remain stable, it may ease market concerns about a slowdown in global manufacturing.

On Wednesday, Disney, Uber, and Eli Lilly will release earnings reports.

Key highlights of Disney's earnings report include the profitability of the streaming media business, theme park attendance and consumer spending, sports media performance, and changes in traditional TV revenue. The market will determine whether improvements in the streaming business can offset the pressure brought about by the decline in traditional TV.

For Uber, investors will focus on travel bookings, delivery growth, profit margins, and free cash flow, as well as whether autonomous driving partnerships will impact future cost structures and competitive landscape.

Eli Lilly's focus remains on the need for diet pills and diabetes medications. The market will focus on Mounjaro and Zepbound's sales, capacity expansion, supply conditions, and full-year guidance. As competition in the diet pills market intensifies, Eli Lilly's production capacity and drug pipeline will directly influence investors' assessments of its long-term growth prospects.

On Thursday, Datadog and Lyft will release quarterly earnings.

Datadog's earnings report will reflect trends in enterprise cloud spending, AI workload growth, and customer cost optimization. For Lyft, the market will look at active riders, total bookings, insurance costs, and profit margins, and compare this to Uber's performance.