Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Defensive ETFs have performed well recently, institutions are optimistic that the alcohol sector will stabilize at the bottom (with concept stocks)

This year, Maotai raised prices several times, and it is a sign that consumption of high-end liquor is bottoming out. In recent years, the price of high-end liquor has continued to fall, and the price of Maotai liquor is one of the trends in the consumer market. Since 2026, Maotai has continuously raised retail prices on the i-Maotai platform, which is a weather vane.

Traditional assets have ushered in an explosion, and ETFs with strong defensive styles such as oil and gas, liquor, banks, consumption, and dividends have performed well.

According to the Dongwu Securities Research Report, liquor is exploring the bottom at an accelerated pace, expectations are ahead. Market pessimistic expectations have already been reflected, and accelerated bottoming out is in line with expectations. For this reason, we suggest focusing on the timing of the “left-hand layout.”

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, looking ahead to the second half of the year, CITIC Securities believes that the alcohol sector has stabilized at the bottom.

According to Wind, the current dividend rate in the alcohol sector is about 4%, and the dividend rate of some leading wine companies exceeds 5%, which has a high allocation cost ratio.

With the restoration of liquor sales, stocks, and fundamentals, and the catalyst for the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day peak season, the sector is expected to be boosted; in terms of beer, judging that the industry will recover moderately in the second half of the year, compounded by the impact of a low base, the fundamentals of the industry will be repaired to a certain extent.

Liquor section:

Zhenjiu Li Du (06979): On June 16, Zhenjiu Lidu Group held the 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders and Investor Exchange Meeting. Zhenjiu Li Du's management revealed that the company's sales expectations are improving. The 2026 performance guidelines were officially raised, the annual revenue growth rate was raised from 10% to 15%, and adjusted net profit was raised from 600 million yuan to 800 million yuan.

Beer sector: China Resources Brewery (00291), Tsingtao Brewery Co., Ltd. (00168)

Budweiser Asia Pacific (01876): According to a research report, the second-quarter results of Budweiser Asia Pacific (01876) showed that business performance in China fell short of expectations, but business growth in South Korea and India was strong. Citigroup believes that the overall operation of the group is affected by continuing challenges in the Chinese market, especially the weak performance of the restaurant channel, but the household consumption channel is gradually improving. The Group's normalized EBITDA fell 10% year on year in the second quarter, organic sales fell 2% year on year, and EBITDA profit margin shrank 229 points year on year to 27.6% year on year. Organic sales fell 4% year on year during the period. Among them, the western Asia Pacific region fell 6%, China fell 10%, and the eastern Asia Pacific region rose 10%; the average sales price of the group rose 2% year on year, the western Asia Pacific region rose 2%, China rose 1%, and the eastern Asia Pacific region fell 2%. Citi maintains Budweiser Asia Pacific's “Buy” rating, with a target price of HK$10.9.

Beijing Holdings (00392): Hualong Securities Research Report indicates that the product structure of Yanjing Brewery has been optimized and upgraded, and the performance growth rate is impressive. 2026H1 Yanjing Brewery's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is estimated to be 1,379 billion yuan to 1,489 billion yuan, an increase of 25.00% to 35.00% year-on-year, and 1.03 billion yuan in the same period last year. The single product Yanjing A10 launched by the company at the end of March 2026 is a new wholemeal flagship product launched in the year the company's “15th Five-Year Plan” started. Yanjing U8 is one of the company's core products during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. It has outstanding long-term value and broad room for market growth. 2026H1 Yanjing Brewery is steadily advancing the implementation of the “15th Five-Year Plan”, focusing on the “one core and two wings” strategic layout, with the main beer business as the core, continuing to promote the growth of large single products such as Yanjing U8 and Yanjing A10, driving the optimization and upgrading of the product structure; expanding diverse consumption scenarios and enriching the product matrix with beverages and health food as the two wings.