The Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (TSE:4307) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (TSE:4307) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to JP¥4,686 in the past week. Nomura Research Institute reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of JP¥210b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥51.42, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Nomura Research Institute are now predicting revenues of JP¥861.4b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a modest 3.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 564% to JP¥219. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥860.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥218 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Nomura Research Institute

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥5,774, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nomura Research Institute at JP¥6,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥5,190. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nomura Research Institute's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 5.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.0% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Nomura Research Institute's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Nomura Research Institute going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Nomura Research Institute has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.