SpaceX First Earnings After IPO Are Here: How Is the Options Market Positioning?

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock has been in a relentless downtrend since its initial public offering (IPO) in June. The shares are now trading just above their record low of $106.97, more than 52% below their post-IPO peak. 

Attention now turns to the company’s earnings report this week, which could determine whether the stock stabilizes or extends its sharp decline.

SpaceX to Publish First Earnings as a Publicly Traded Company

SpaceX’s share price has come under intense selling pressure since its IPO, mirroring the performance of many newly listed companies that surge in the early days of trading as investor enthusiasm peaks before giving back much of those gains.

The sell-off has also mirrored the performance of other companies in its industry. For example, most space companies like Rocket Lab and Planet Lab have plunged sharply in the past few months, erasing billions of dollars in value. Similarly, companies in the AI space like CoreWeave and Nebius have all plunged in this period.

The ongoing SpaceX stock sell-off will be put to the test on Tuesday when it releases its first results as a publicly traded company. Its most recent earnings report, the company said that its revenue rose to $4.6 billion in the first quarter from $4.06 billion in the same period last year. Its net loss also jumped to $4.2 billion from $528 million in Q1’25. 

Analysts expect the earnings to show that its revenue jumped to $6.8 billion, with the highest estimate being $8 billion. For the year, analysts expect the company’s revenue to hit $39.1 billion, followed by $73.1 billion next year.

Most of this growth will come from its data center business. Anthropic has already started paying it $1.25 billion per month as part of a $45 billion deal. Reflection AI has also started paying it $125 million a month, while Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) will start paying it over $900 million a month.

SpaceX’s main challenge is that its AI business is spending billions of dollars in capital expenditure, with no profitability in sight. Together with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), it is spending billions of dollars on Terafab, a giant semiconductor project in Texas. 

Options Market Points to Volatility After Earnings

The options market is pricing in substantial volatility after its earnings. Specifically, it is pricing in a 14-15% move in either direction after the report. This is a possible move because the earnings will provide more color on its business and what to expect. 

Options expiring on Friday have an implied volatility of 163%, a high figure because of its earnings and the upcoming employee lockup expiry. While it is hard to predict, the company’s open interest has a put/call ratio of 0.50, meaning that investors are leaning more towards the upside. 

Another possible bullish aspect is that sentiment in the company has faded, with over 219.3 million shares being short. In some cases, highly shorted companies tend to jump as they experience a short squeeze. Therefore, while it is too early to predict, there is a likelihood that the stock will have a relief rally after earnings.

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