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    Ondas (ONDS) Draws BlackRock Interest, Is It Still 62% Undervalued?

    Simply Wall St·08/02/2026 00:25:09
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    BlackRock stake puts fresh attention on Ondas stock

    BlackRock’s disclosure of a 7.2% passive stake in Ondas (ONDS), alongside recent defense contracts and acquisitions, has put fresh attention on the stock and management’s updated revenue outlook for fiscal 2026.

    See our latest analysis for Ondas.

    Despite BlackRock’s new position and the recent defense contracts and acquisitions, Ondas’ share price has come under pressure, with the 90 day share price return down 27.42% and the year to date share price return down 32.03%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 240.45% and 3 year total shareholder return above 4x still reflect a very strong longer term move.

    If Ondas’ recent swings have you thinking about where else growth and defense technology could show up next, it is worth scanning the 55 AI infrastructure stocks for more ideas.

    Ondas now trades at a steep discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates after a sharp pullback. Is the market sensibly fading the story, or mispricing a business with growing defense exposure and new contracts?

    Most Popular Narrative: 61.6% Undervalued

    Ondas closed at $7.49, while the most followed narrative on the stock pegs fair value at $19.50. That gap is anchored in a very specific defense thesis.

    We could all agree that the defense landscape of 2026 has been defined by a humbling reality: expensive, high-tech systems are being routinely embarrassed by cheap, off-the-shelf drone swarms since the outbreak of Russo-Ukrainian war. For years, the U.S. Departement of War has been caught in a surveillance gap. Traditional satellites sit too high, tethered to expensive orbits with predictable "blind spots." Standard tactical drones fly too low and run out of battery far too quickly. This middle ground is where security fails, and it is exactly where Ondas Holdings is building its fortress.

    Read the complete narrative.

    According to AgentWilson, the fair value hinges on how a full "layered ISR" stack could turn one-off orders into a repeatable defense grid. The assumptions pull together rapid revenue growth, a step change in margins and a future earnings multiple that leans on that national security role. Curious what has to happen operationally for that $19.50 fair value to line up with today’s $7.49 share price.

    Result: Fair Value of $19.50 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this Ondas thesis still faces real risk if large defense customers slow orders or if execution stumbles in integrating the World View partnership.

    Find out about the key risks to this Ondas narrative.

    Next Steps

    If this Ondas story feels finely balanced between potential and risk, now is a good time to look at the details yourself and decide where you stand. To weigh both sides in one place, start with the 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

    Looking for more Ondas investment ideas?

    If Ondas has caught your eye, do not stop at a single stock. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not late to the next opportunity.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.