Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BME:BBVA) Following Strong Q2 And Buyback Faces A Pricey Fair Value View

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BME:BBVA) stock is in focus after the bank reported second quarter 2026 net income of €3,062 million and announced a new €2b share buyback alongside higher regional guidance.

See our latest analysis for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria’s latest results and €2b buyback have landed after a strong run, with a 10.25% 1 month share price return and a 75.63% 1 year total shareholder return signalling strong momentum built over several years.

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For Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, this sharp move sits at the crossroads of solid reported earnings, a fresh €2b buyback and upgraded guidance on one side, and potentially hotter sentiment on the other. What does the current valuation actually suggest?

Most Popular Narrative: 10.3% Overvalued

Compared with the latest close at €24.20, the most followed narrative fair value of €21.95 points to a premium that investors should understand before making any moves.

BBVA is described as being well positioned to benefit from the continued expansion of the middle class and rising financial inclusion in high-growth emerging markets like Mexico and Turkey, which is expected to support loan growth and fee-generating activity and may positively affect top-line revenue and long-term earnings potential.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that earnings story for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria? The narrative focuses on revenue expansion, shifting margins and a richer earnings multiple that needs to be squared with today’s price.

Result: Fair Value of €21.95 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria’s reliance on markets such as Mexico and Turkey, as well as ongoing regulatory and execution risks, could still upset this upbeat narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria narrative.

Another View on Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria’s Valuation

Analyst narratives suggest Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria trades at about a 10.3% premium to a €21.95 fair value, yet the SWS DCF model points the other way. On that view, BBVA at €24.20 sits about 34.9% below an estimated future cash flow value of €37.17. Which story do you think fits your expectations?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 257 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment split between risks and rewards for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, this is a good time to act quickly and test the thesis against your own expectations. To weigh both sides of the story for yourself, start with the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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