Lam Research (LRCX) Could Be 9% Undervalued After Record AI Driven Earnings

Lam Research earnings beat and AI driven demand

Lam Research (LRCX) just reported record quarterly and full year results, with sales and earnings above Wall Street expectations. Strong AI related demand for chipmaking tools and a favorable product mix were key drivers.

See our latest analysis for Lam Research.

Despite the strong earnings, Lam Research’s recent share price has pulled back, with a 30 day share price return down 16.6% and a 7 day share price return down 4%. That comes after a 90 day share price return of 14.1% and a year to date share price return of 58.3%. The 1 year total shareholder return is very large at about 3x and the 5 year total shareholder return is close to 4x. This points to powerful long term momentum even as short term enthusiasm cools.

If AI driven demand for chip equipment has your attention, this can be a good moment to see what else is moving and screen for 57 AI infrastructure stocks

After record earnings and a sharp pullback from recent highs, Lam Research now sits in a tricky middle ground. Is this dip enough to justify buying in, or does it make more sense to wait for a better entry point?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.4% Undervalued

At a last close of $293.02, the most followed narrative pegs Lam Research’s fair value at $323.38, using a detailed long term cash flow and earnings framework built on AI driven wafer fab equipment demand and margin assumptions.

Rapidly rising AI workloads and the associated need for higher storage, bandwidth, and processing power are accelerating the adoption of advanced chip architectures (such as gate-all-around, 3D NAND, and advanced packaging). This increases demand for Lam's etch and deposition tools, supporting sustained revenue growth and robust order visibility.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what underpins that fair value gap for Lam Research? The narrative leans on faster top line expansion, sturdier margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious which specific growth and profitability paths have been baked in to get there? The full narrative lays out those assumptions in black and white.

Result: Fair Value of $323.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Lam Research’s narrative could be challenged if China export restrictions tighten further, or if a few large customers pull back wafer fab equipment spending.

Find out about the key risks to this Lam Research narrative.

Another View: Multiples Send A Different Signal

While the Lam Research narrative points to a fair value of $323.38 and a 9.4% undervaluation, the P/E picture is less generous. LRCX trades on a 50.5x P/E, above its own fair ratio of 46x and above peer averages of 47.3x, even though it sits just below the US semiconductor sector at 52.2x. For you, that raises a simple question: Is this a quality growth story at a full price, or is the premium narrower than it looks once growth risks are factored in?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With mixed signals on Lam Research so far, it can help to look through the data yourself and decide how the risk reward trade off really looks. To move quickly from headline reactions to your own informed view, start with the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Lam Research?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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