SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) Sells New Notes, Is The Stock Now Too Pricey?

SoftBank Group taps bond market with ¥90b in new notes

SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) has completed two unsecured fixed income offerings totaling ¥90b, issuing ¥80b of 3.270% straight notes due August 3, 2029, and ¥10b of 3.886% straight notes due August 4, 2031.

See our latest analysis for SoftBank Group.

SoftBank Group’s share price has moved sharply in recent sessions, with a 1-day share price return of 13.8% contrasting with a 30-day share price return that is down 12.33%. The 1-year total shareholder return of 82.08% and 5-year total shareholder return of 220.13% indicate strong longer term momentum.

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SoftBank Group has just jumped 13.8% in a day yet still trades well below both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates. So where does fair value really sit in that spread as the valuation work begins?

Most Popular Narrative: 16.9% Overvalued

SoftBank Group last closed at ¥5,260, which sits above the narrative fair value of ¥4,498.7 and sets up a debate around how much its AI ambitions are already reflected in the price.

SoftBank’s exposure to frontier AI through strategic investments positions it to benefit significantly as global AI spending accelerates. Capital is pouring into compute infrastructure, robotics, and next-generation platforms, areas where SoftBank has built substantial stakes. The company has deepened its commitment to OpenAI, with reports of discussions for an additional $30 billion investment on top of prior commitments exceeding $41 billion, potentially totaling over $71 billion in one of the most aggressive bets on generative AI. Partnerships like SB OAI Japan are leveraging OpenAI’s newly announced “Frontier” enterprise AI platform to roll out “Crystal intelligence” solutions for Japanese enterprises, with internal validation underway and accelerated deployment targeted for 2026.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this AI heavy plan translates into a ¥4,498.7 fair value? The narrative leans on specific revenue build ups, margin assumptions, and a future earnings multiple. Want to see which pieces of SoftBank Group are treated as core drivers versus optional upside? The full narrative lays out those numbers and how they connect.

Result: Fair Value of ¥4,498.7 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, SoftBank Group still faces clear risks, including potential setbacks related to large AI investments and any renewed weakness in Vision Fund earnings or asset marks.

Find out about the key risks to this SoftBank Group narrative.

Another View on SoftBank Group’s Valuation

The narrative fair value suggests SoftBank Group is overvalued at ¥5,260 versus ¥4,498.7. Yet the stock trades on a P/E of 6x while both the Asian wireless telecom industry and direct peers sit around 18x, and the fair ratio points to 10.5x. That gap may indicate either caution in the market or a potential mispricing. Which side of that trade do you think the market is on?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With SoftBank Group presenting both AI driven upside and valuation questions, now is a good time to review the data and form your own view using the 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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