Results: ANA Holdings Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

ANA Holdings Inc. (TSE:9202) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of JP¥673b, some 4.5% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at JP¥39.99, 224% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from ANA Holdings' twelve analysts is for revenues of JP¥2.79t in 2027. This would reflect a reasonable 4.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 32% to JP¥254 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥2.80t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥247 in 2027. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for ANA Holdings

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥3,436, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ANA Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,200 and the most bearish at JP¥2,700 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ANA Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. Compare this to the 41 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while ANA Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards ANA Holdings following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,436, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ANA Holdings analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - ANA Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.