1.2 million vehicles involved in the government's investigation of declining stock prices due to suspension faults add to the regulatory risk of Tesla (TSLA.US)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that after several drivers complained about the sudden suspension failure of Tesla brand vehicles, US automobile safety regulators have investigated Tesla (TSLA.US), a leader in electric vehicles, AI, autonomous driving, and robotics, the best-selling electric model in the US market. This latest investigation by US regulators can be described as coinciding with a surge in Tesla car sales in Europe and a marked surge in FSD (fully automated driving software platform) subscription adoption in North America.

The agency has received 156 reports of suspected suspension issues in Tesla vehicles that “could cause the vehicle to lose control of direction,” according to a document published on its website on Friday by the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. This so-called preliminary assessment involves approximately 1.2 million vehicles, focusing on the Model 3 classic sedan from the 2018 to 2020 model year, and the Model Y model SUV from the 2021 to 2023 model year.

The driver in the incident mentioned above said that there is usually no warning before the suspension fails, but there are also reports that they have heard abnormal noises. The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said none of the incidents resulted in injuries or deaths. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Cox Automotive estimates that in the second quarter of 2026, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles in the US was 247,200 units. Although it rebounded 14.7% from the first quarter, it still fell 20.5% year on year, and the year-on-year decline for the third consecutive quarter; pure electric vehicles accounted for about 5.8% of the US new car market, which is basically the same as in the first quarter. These data can be described as highlighting that the US electric vehicle market is stabilizing from the sharp contraction after subsidies were withdrawn, rather than entering a new round of eruption.

Tesla's car sales in the US have also not surged. Cox estimates that its US sales volume for the second quarter was 124,800 units, down 13.1% year on year; cumulative sales volume for the first half of the year was 242,100 units, down 10.9% year on year. Among them, Model Y grew 8.8% in the first half of the year, but Model 3 declined by 34.3%, and Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck all declined significantly.

In stark contrast to vehicle sales, commercialization of FSD in North America is indeed surging. Tesla's active global FSD subscriptions in the second quarter were about 1.48 million to 1.5 million, an increase of 56% over the previous year; the company also said that net new subscriptions for the quarter set a record, with more than 55% of new car deliveries in North America including FSD subscriptions, the highest added rate in history. However, this 55% is North American caliber; not the US alone caliber, while 1.48 million is a global caliber statistic.

Tesla's car sales in Europe can be described as being in a period of strong rebound. According to ACEA data, in the first half of 2026, Tesla registered 174,400 vehicles in the European Union, the European Free Trade Association, and the United Kingdom, an increase of 54.6%; in June alone, 52,600 vehicles were registered, an increase of 49.9% over the previous year. If you only count the European Union, Tesla's registration volume in the first half of the year increased by 75.4% year-on-year, and increased by 72.1% in June. This can already be called a significant sales spike rather than an ordinary fix. The overall demand for pure electric vehicles in Europe is also strengthening. In the first half of the year, EU pure electric vehicle registrations increased to 1.22,900 units, and the market share rose from 15.6% to 20.7%.

However, it is worth noting that this massive rebound in sales in the European market was based on a low base of a sharp decline in European sales in 2025, and was driven by factors such as French subsidies, the electrification of corporate fleets, and the US-Iran conflict driving up fuel prices. Tesla's global delivery volume in the second quarter reached 481,000 vehicles, an increase of about 25% over the previous year, setting a quarterly record. Reuters believes that new demand is particularly concentrated in Europe.

NHTSA launched a suspension survey of about 1.2 million Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. It may not reverse European sales and FSD subscription growth in the short term, but it will increase Tesla's recall costs, warranty reserves, brand trust, and regulatory discounts. Currently, Tesla's business structure is clearly divided: European automobile demand is recovering strongly, and North American FSD penetration is rising rapidly, yet US vehicle sales and automobile profit margins have not simultaneously entered a strong growth cycle.

According to Morgan Stanley and other Wall Street firms that are optimistic about Tesla's stock price, what determines Tesla's fundamentals and valuation prospects is not selling tens of thousands more cars, but whether Robotaxi, FSD's huge energy storage systems related to Optimus, and AI can prove that Tesla's unique physical AI system has entered the large-scale commercial stage. In other words, according to the Daimo analyst team, Tesla is using the cash flow chassis formed from the phased recovery of the automobile business to fund an unprecedented arms race for computing power manufacturing infrastructure such as cutting-edge AI, FSD autonomous driving software, Robotaxi, energy storage systems, humanoid robots, and AI chips dominated by Musk's “Terafab” vision. Since July, Tesla's stock price can be described as continuing to weaken under the negative catalyst of poor performance, falling as much as 30% in a single month.