BMO Updates Glencore Forecasts Amid Expected Marketing Windfall in H1

08:06 AM EDT, 07/31/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BMO Capital Markets on Thursday adjusted its forecasts for Glencore (GLEN.L, GLN.JO) following the mining company's latest operational results and updated production guidance for 2026. Glencore expects to report an adjusted EBIT of $3.3 billion from its marketing segment in the first half when it releases its half-year results on Aug. 5, which is 56% higher than the research firm's previous estimate and up 140% compared with the company's year-ago figure. "As a result, we've updated our H1/26 forecasts to reflect the stronger result in marketing, although we continue to expect more normalised levels in H2, forecasting total Marketing EBIT of US$4.9B for the year. This would represent the highest contribution from marketing since 2022 and is well above its normal US$2.3-3.5B range," the research firm said Thursday. "While our forecasts assume a moderation in marketing earnings in H2/26, ongoing geopolitical tensions, including continued conflict in the Middle East, could continue to support elevated market volatility, representing potential upside to our full-year Marketing EBIT estimate." As such, analysts raised their first-half and full-year 2026 EPS estimates to $0.33 and $0.66, respectively, from $0.27 and $0.61, along with a higher projected EBITDA for both periods. For 2027, the EBITDA forecast was also upwardly revised. "We now believe there is a chance of a modest special dividend this half, with full year 26/27 returns attractive at 7.5/10.0%. With earnings upgraded and an attractive outlook for shareholder returns, we reiterate our Outperform rating," BMO added. The price target stands at 7 pounds sterling.