Nomura Holdings (TSE:8604) Q1 Strength Keeps Fair Value In Focus

Nomura Holdings (TSE:8604) is in focus after reporting first quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026, with higher revenue, net income, and earnings per share compared with a year earlier.

See our latest analysis for Nomura Holdings.

Despite the strong first quarter update, Nomura Holdings’ share price has recently pulled back, with the 1 day share price return down 6.52% and the 7 day share price return down 9.51%. However, the 90 day share price return of 20.49% and 1 year total shareholder return of 52.80% still point to solid longer term momentum.

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The recent pullback leaves Nomura Holdings trading below both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates. Given that gap, and the strong first quarter print, where does a reasonable fair value range really sit now?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.3% Undervalued

At the latest close of ¥1,470, the most followed narrative for Nomura Holdings points to a fair value of ¥1,603.75, using a 7.4% discount rate and a detailed earnings path to 2029.

The analysts have a consensus price target of ¥1,603.75 for Nomura Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ¥2,080.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ¥1,200.0.

Read the complete narrative.

The gap between the current price and this fair value depends on a specific mix of revenue growth, margin expansion and the P/E multiple the stock could carry in a few years. Want to see exactly how those moving parts are combined into a single number, and where analysts disagree the most on Nomura Holdings?

Result: Fair Value of ¥1,603.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still clear risks for Nomura Holdings if wealth and asset inflows slow or if overseas operations continue to lag group profitability expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Nomura Holdings narrative.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards in play for Nomura Holdings, it makes sense to move quickly, review the full picture, and then decide what stacks up for you using the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Nomura Holdings?

If Nomura Holdings has sharpened your focus, now is the moment to widen your opportunity set and actively hunt for other stocks that fit your goals.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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