QIC says Australia June trimmed mean inflation cools to 0.8%, easing near-term RBA hike risk

• QIC flagged a softer-than-expected June CPI print in Australia, easing near-term pressure on the RBA despite trimmed mean inflation at 0.8% q/q.
• Annual trimmed mean inflation printed at 3.6%, still elevated, but QIC said the Iran war oil shock has shown limited flow-through to underlying inflation so far.
• Market pricing shifted, with expectations for an August hike removed, leaving roughly a 50% chance of any RBA hike over the next year.
• QIC forecast annual trimmed mean inflation at 3.4% by year-end, returning to the target band in the second half of 2027.
• Base case calls for the RBA to stay on hold over the next year, citing restrictive policy, weaker demand, labor market easing, housing market decline.

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