The Mets Signed a Prediction Market Sponsor: What Are the Odds They Win the National League?

The New York Mets named startup Novig their official prediction market partner Thursday, the first deal of its kind for an individual Major League Baseball club.

A rival platform is less enthusiastic about the product on the field.

Traders on Polymarket price the Mets at 0.4 cents to win the National League, below the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins.

The team sits at 46-63, last in the NL East. Last season, the Mets opened 45-24 and saw their playoff odds reach 96.2%, then went 38-55 over their final 93 games to finish 83-79 and miss the postseason.

What Novig Is Buying

The multi-year agreement puts Novig branding across Citi Field signage, broadcasts and digital activations, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Novig won CFTC approval in June to operate nationally and plans a full launch in August. Chief Executive Jacob Fortinsky told the Journal that sportsbooks are obsolete because traders no longer need to bet against the house.

The company raised $75 million in February in a round led by Pantera Capital, valuing it at $500 million. That is roughly one-fortieth of Kalshi’s latest funding valuation.

Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.

Why Novig Says It Is Different

Novig focuses exclusively on sports contracts. Fortinsky has argued that rivals are trying to create demand for newly financialized markets, while Novig is targeting a sports-betting market where demand already exists.

The platform charges retail traders no commission and says it does not limit winners. Fortinsky has linked the company’s creation to sportsbooks limiting or banning profitable bettors.

Novig was processing around $300 million in monthly volume in February. Fortinsky told Forbes that monetization would not become a priority until the platform reaches $1 billion in monthly trading volume.

Why the Incumbents May Care

DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) have both rolled out prediction-market products while defending a state-by-state licensing model against federally regulated exchanges.

Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) generated $156 million in event-contract revenue in the second quarter, more than ten times the year-earlier level.

Fortinsky says his platform makes money on trading activity rather than customer losses, a pitch aimed directly at bettors who have been limited or banned for winning.

MLB granted Polymarket exclusive league-level rights earlier this year. Novig got a ballpark instead.

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