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    Did Solvay’s (ENXTBR:SOLB) Rare Earth Expansion and Saudi Restart Just Quietly Redefine Its Investment Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·07/30/2026 17:29:57
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    • Solvay reported a quarter with a 20% EBITDA decline, confirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, and in 2026 restarted its peroxide plant in Saudi Arabia while committing further capital to expand rare earth separation capacity at its La Rochelle site.
    • A key differentiator is Solvay’s position as the only company outside China able to separate all 17 rare earth elements, which could prove important for customers seeking diversified supply chains.
    • Next, we’ll examine how Solvay’s rare earth expansion and Saudi peroxide plant restart may influence its longer-term investment narrative.

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    Solvay Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Solvay today, you need to believe that its rare earths and specialty peroxide assets can offset pressure in more cyclical businesses like soda ash. The latest quarter’s 20% EBITDA decline underlines that near term earnings remain vulnerable, but management’s confirmation of 2026 guidance suggests the core thesis has not materially changed. The main short term catalyst is progress on rare earth expansion, while the biggest risk remains prolonged weak pricing and demand in basic chemicals.

    The decision to expand rare earth separation capacity at La Rochelle is the most relevant announcement here. It directly reinforces Solvay’s role as the only non Chinese player able to separate all 17 rare earth elements, which could help it capture customers looking for diversified supply. How quickly this capacity ramps and attracts long term commitments will be central to whether the rare earth story can counterbalance ongoing volatility in soda ash and other legacy segments.

    Yet behind the rare earth opportunity, investors should be aware that prolonged soda ash overcapacity could still...

    Read the full narrative on Solvay (it's free!)

    Solvay's narrative projects €4.3 billion revenue and €239.3 million earnings by 2029. This assumes a 2.4% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about €264 million from -€25.0 million today.

    Uncover how Solvay's forecasts yield a €25.10 fair value, a 7% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ENXTBR:SOLB 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ENXTBR:SOLB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming earnings could reach about €455.7 million by 2029, but if cost savings disappoint or carbon monetization fades, that upbeat view of Solvay’s margin resilience could look very different.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Solvay - why the stock might be worth 26% less than the current price!

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.