Clorox (CLX) Stock Trades At A Discount To Fair Value

Clorox stock is trading at about US$99.63 after a difficult few years for shareholders, yet both the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value estimate and the earnings multiples currently point to the shares looking inexpensive rather than stretched.

• Clorox has delivered a decline of roughly 29.1% over the past 5 years, which means the share price has lagged while the latest valuation checks now suggest more supportive pricing.
• Expectations that Clorox can continue to convert earnings into steady cash flows may support the current valuation, although any pressure on margins or higher operating costs could quickly weigh on what investors are willing to pay.
• On Simply Wall St's broader checks, Clorox screens undervalued in 5 of 6 valuation tests, and you can see that breakdown in more detail on the valuation summary page.

The issue now is whether that combination of a weaker long term share return record and a supportive intrinsic value estimate gives enough reason for investors to view Clorox as priced at an attractive level today.

Find out why Clorox's -17.5% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Does Clorox Look Undervalued on Cash Flow?

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what Clorox is worth today based on projected future cash that the business could return to shareholders. For Clorox, the model starts with latest twelve month free cash flow of about US$370.8 million and assumes that cash generation grows from this base rather than shrinking, in line with the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach used here.

On these cash flow projections, the DCF model produces an estimated intrinsic value of about $149 per share, compared with the recent share price near $99. This implies the stock trades at roughly a 32.9% discount to the model’s estimate. This indicates that the market is valuing Clorox’s future cash flows cautiously relative to this scenario.

On this DCF view, Clorox stock currently appears undervalued compared with its estimated intrinsic value.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Clorox is undervalued by 32.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 49 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Clorox.

Is Clorox a Bargain on Earnings?

The P/E ratio is a useful way to see what you are paying for each dollar of Clorox earnings today. Clorox currently trades on a P/E of about 15.9x, which is slightly below the Household Products industry average of roughly 16.6x and well below the broader peer average of around 26.0x.

The fair P/E ratio implied by Simply Wall St’s model for Clorox is about 18.2x. That is higher than the current 15.9x, which suggests the market is applying a discount relative to what this framework indicates could be reasonable for a company with Clorox’s profile and risk level. If the market were to value Clorox closer to this fair multiple, the share price would likely sit higher than it does today.

On the P/E multiple, Clorox stock appears undervalued compared with the fair ratio suggested by these earnings-based checks.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

The Clorox Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where the Clorox valuation checks leave off. They spell out which assumptions about future growth, margins and earnings would need to hold for the stock to be worth materially more or materially less than today’s price on the Community page. Each Narrative links its number to a specific view of how Clorox's growth, profitability and risks might evolve, which you can revisit as new information becomes available.

Community views on Clorox sit quite far apart, with one group seeing clear value and another focused on rising execution and category risks.

Bull case: 29% undervalued

"The imminent end of the Glad JV with P&G will directly expand gross margins as Clorox fully internalizes profits from this high-volume segment..."

Read the full Bull Case to see why Clorox could be undervalued

Bear case: 29% overvalued

"The proliferation of private label and online-native competitors, accelerated by digital channel growth and aggressive discounting in key categories like trash bags and cat litter, is expected to erode brand loyalty..."

Read the full Bear Case to see why Clorox could be overvalued

Do you think there's more to the story for Clorox? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

The Bottom Line

Clorox screens as undervalued on both the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value estimate and the current P/E multiple checks, which is a relatively consistent message for value focused investors. The key question is whether Clorox can sustain the cash flow and margin profile that underpins that intrinsic value assessment, and whether the market is prepared to lift the earnings multiple if those assumptions hold. The crux of the debate is whether current risks around execution and competition justify the discount, or whether they are already more than reflected in today’s price.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com