BOC International: Lowering the target price of Jiumojiu (09922) by 32% to HK$1.3 to maintain a “neutral” rating

The Zhitong Finance App learned that BOC International released a research report stating that it maintained the Jiumaojiu (09922) “neutral” rating and lowered the target price by 31.6% to HK$1.3. The bank said it will lower the 2026-2028 revenue forecast to RMB 50.9-5.55 billion based on the latest number of stores, the restructuring process and the pace of retail business expansion. The estimated net profit for the period is 160-290 million yuan, and the profit forecast for 2026-2028 will be lowered by 3%-12%. It is expected that Taier's mainland same-store sales and store profit margins will continue to recover; however, there is still uncertainty about overseas business, the restructuring process of other brands, and the expansion of export sales business. The company's current profit recovery comes more from store restructuring and cost optimization, and store expansion has yet to be restarted. Therefore, considering the company's growth center and changes in industry uncertainty, the target price was lowered and the rating was maintained.

The bank expects that the company's revenue for the first half of 2026 will still decrease by the number of units year-on-year, mainly affected by the contraction in the number of stores (number of units declining since the beginning of the year); however, thanks to the results of the Tai'er store model, operating losses decreased after inefficient stores withdrew, and net profit to mother is expected to improve slightly year-on-year. There are still no clear signs of recovery in industry demand. The bank expects that there is still room for growth in export sales revenue this year. The increase is mainly due to the expansion of new channels and cooperation with Costco in the US. The company expects more related revenue to be reflected in the second half of the year and 2027.