Bitcoin mining difficulty may now drop for the first time in history

According to Woofun AI, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining is facing a historic turning point. Well-known analyst PlanB warns that this indicator may be declining for the first time in history. This phenomenon marks the possibility of a fundamental reversal in the long-term upward trajectory of difficulty since the inception of the Bitcoin network in 2009, triggering deep market concerns about the sustainability of the miner economic model.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining is expected to drop to 126.2 trillion in 2026, while at the end of 2025, this figure will still be 148.3 trillion, a decrease of about 15%. Looking back over the past 15 years, mining difficulty reached a record high (ATH) every year, and $148.3 trillion at the end of 2025 was the pinnacle of this upward trend.

However, the 126.2 trillion value that followed constituted a sharp reversal. This annual decline of about 15% is the first in Bitcoin's history. It not only breaks long-term growth inertia, but also indicates that the mining industry's economic model is undergoing drastic restructuring.

It is worth noting that this data change is not an isolated event, but is closely related to macro-market fluctuations and internal structural adjustments in the industry, reflecting a significant contraction on the supply side of computing power.

Analyzed from a mechanical level, the Bitcoin network automatically adjusts the mining difficulty every 2 weeks (that is, every 2,016 blocks) to ensure that a block is generated every 10 minutes. As the hashing power increases, the difficulty increases to maintain a stable block generation time; conversely, if the miner's withdrawal causes the hash power to drop, the difficulty decreases accordingly. Behind the current decline in difficulty is a combination of multiple economic pressures: the 2024 halving incident led to the halving of block rewards, directly reducing miners' income space;

Meanwhile, falling Bitcoin prices and rising energy costs are further eroding profits. Due to declining revenue, many listed mining companies are forced to sell their bitcoins to maintain operations, or even shut down unprofitable facilities. Although this withdrawal reduces the overall difficulty, enables remaining miners to obtain Bitcoin at a lower cost, and helps stabilize the network in the short term, if the trend continues too long, it may raise concerns about the long-term health of the mining ecosystem. PlanB's data and industry reports confirm each other, highlighting the cyclical characteristics of high profits attracting entry and low profit forcing exit.

Although this year isn't over yet, the current trend in Bitcoin mining difficulty heralds a historic first: an annual decline. This phenomenon clearly shows how the Bitcoin network adjusted after being halved. Investors and industry watchers will be watching closely to see if the level of difficulty stabilizes or continues to decline, as this indicator provides a key clue to understanding the resilience of the mining industry and the Bitcoin network as a whole.