The pattern is under pressure at the $2 mark: there is enough fuel on the chain but the technical aspects are yet to be confirmed

According to Woofun AI, the current price of Morpho is accurately anchored at the $2 mark, which corresponds exactly to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line. Every rebound since June has faced strong resistance here, and the market is at a critical point of long and short balance.

On-chain activity showed significant quantitative indicators. According to Santiment data, 68 giant whale transactions exceeding 100,000 US dollars occurred in a single day, a new high since October 2, 2025; at the same time, the number of newly created wallets reached 337 in a single day, the highest since March 15, 2026.

Furthermore, the MORPHO balance on the exchange surged 4.35 million units in a single day for the first time since February 4, 2026. Although these signals are optimistic, given that the token's market capitalization has surpassed $1.2 billion and the transfer amount of $100,000 is relatively small, Santiment's monitoring data is better viewed as an indicator of market sentiment rather than definitive evidence of institutional fund-raising. Since June, the MORPHO price has been fluctuating between $1.8 and $2.2, lacking a clear direction. The steep downtrend line formed in May has long since expired. Currently, the price is stable at the center of the range, with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages being supported below, while the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line at $2 forms upward suppression. The RSI index hovers between 49 and 50, further confirming the neutral state of market momentum. Once the direction is chosen, the price may move to either extreme.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, judging from the nature of funding, CoinGecko data shows that before and after Upbit's listing, MORPHO's daily trading volume surged 400%. This growth rate far exceeds the growth rate of giant whale transfers, indicating a large influx of new participants rather than a small number of people concentrating on attracting funds. The increase in the number of new wallets confirms the expansion of market participants from the original holders to a broader level. If positions are adjusted only for giant whales, the number of addresses usually will not surge, and the current outbreak of new wallets has ruled out this possibility. There are 4.35 million assets flowing out of the exchange. Although it may include internal transfers or custodian changes, this outflow is still a reference value for tokens trying to maintain support levels, and usually means an immediate reduction in selling pressure. Taken together, the signs favor fund-raising rather than distribution, which explains why MORPHO remained at the bottom of the range after many failed shocks at $2.

However, the market currently lacks sufficient evidence that buyers can turn interest into a substantial price increase.

In terms of fundamental catalysts, the combination of multiple benefits has contributed to a sharp rise in on-chain data. Morpho launched its Midnight (Midnight) product on the Base platform in July to provide fixed interest and term lending services; Robinhood (HOOD.US) also selected Morpho to support its Earn product on July 1 to generate revenue from idle USDG balances through vaults managed by Steakhouse Financial.

Additionally, the agreement raised $175 million from Paradigm, a16z, and Ribbit Capital in June, and valued at around $2 billion. Upbit opened the MORPHO/KRW trading pair at 18:00 KST on July 25, allowing tokens that were originally only traded in the Bitcoin and USDT markets to enter the fiat currency channel. Prices had already risen 4.8% in the days before listing, and the surge in new wallets is closely related to Korean retail investors entering the market through new trading pairs. The combination of these product launches, cooperation, and financing news explains why giant whale activity and the number of new wallets are rising at the same time, but the single news did not directly lead to a price breakthrough.

Future trend inference shows that if the closing price stabilizes at $2, it will break the moving average group and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line, turning this congestion zone into a support level. The upward target first looks at $2.1 corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement line, followed by $0.786 at $2.2, which marks the upper bound of the two-month fluctuation range. Conversely, if it falls below the $1.95 to $1.96 range, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line at $1.90 will be the first line of defense; if it falls, we will look at $1.78 corresponding to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line, and the 200-day simple moving average close to $1.75. Even if it falls below the support, the fuel shown in the on-chain data has not disappeared, which only indicates that the price improvement is premature, and traders need to maintain their expectations.