CITIC Securities pointed out that this round of Middle East crude oil shock is no longer a small repetition of the first round, but rather a second shock after the buffer is exhausted. During the two rounds of oil price shocks, the most crowded trading structure in the market was completely different, which meant that the market would not simply replicate the market operating pattern of the second quarter. The only thing that is relatively certain is that the direction of the Middle East war is becoming more difficult to predict, and the risk of prolonged conflict is increasing, which means that the market will inevitably need to go through a process of reducing bias in the short term. However, judging from volume, price and sentiment indicators, negative events and narratives have been reflected in the relatively extreme short-term decline. The downturn process is nearing its end, and there is a high probability that the market will generally reverse rotation in August. CITIC Securities is still optimistic about the convergence of three dimensions: 1) the convergence of Al chain upstream hardware and price increases compared to the excessive profits of downstream platform-based companies; 2) the trade-off repair of domestic non-AI industrial stocks compared to overseas rival companies; and 3) the convergence of technology and non-technology.

CITIC Securities pointed out that this round of Middle East crude oil shock is no longer a small repetition of the first round, but rather a second shock after the buffer is exhausted. During the two rounds of oil price shocks, the most crowded trading structure in the market was completely different, which meant that the market would not simply replicate the market operating pattern of the second quarter. The only thing that is relatively certain is that the direction of the Middle East war is becoming more difficult to predict, and the risk of prolonged conflict is increasing, which means that the market will inevitably need to go through a process of reducing bias in the short term. However, judging from volume, price and sentiment indicators, negative events and narratives have been reflected in the relatively extreme short-term decline. The downturn process is nearing its end, and there is a high probability that the market will generally reverse rotation in August. CITIC Securities is still optimistic about the convergence of three dimensions: 1) the convergence of Al chain upstream hardware and price increases compared to the excessive profits of downstream platform-based companies; 2) the trade-off repair of domestic non-AI industrial stocks compared to overseas rival companies; and 3) the convergence of technology and non-technology.