Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

Investors in Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. (BMV:TLEVISACPO) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.5% to close at Mex$9.81 following the release of its second-quarter results. Revenues came in at Mex$14b, in line with estimates, while Grupo Televisa reported a statutory loss of Mex$0.19 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eleven analysts covering Grupo Televisa, is for revenues of Mex$56.6b in 2026. This implies a noticeable 2.4% reduction in Grupo Televisa's revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Grupo Televisa forecast to report a statutory profit of Mex$0.82 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of Mex$56.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$0.83 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Grupo Televisa

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 8.0% to Mex$20.42, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Grupo Televisa at Mex$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$11.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Grupo Televisa's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2026 compared to the historical decline of 7.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 5.8% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Grupo Televisa is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Grupo Televisa's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Grupo Televisa analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Grupo Televisa that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.