Neste Oyj (HLSE:NESTE) Stock Faces EPS Rebound That Tests Bearish Earnings Narratives

Neste Oyj (HLSE:NESTE) opened Q2 2026 with revenue of €6.0b and basic EPS of €1.00, setting a clear marker after its recent return to profitability. The company reported quarterly revenue of €4.5b in Q2 2025 compared with €6.0b in Q2 2026, while basic EPS moved from a loss of €0.05 per share to a profit of €1.00, supported by trailing 12 month EPS of €1.98. For investors, that shift in earnings power puts margins firmly in focus as the next test is how durable this improved profitability really is.

See our full analysis for Neste Oyj.

Next, it helps to set these results against the main narratives around Neste Oyj to see which views about growth, risks and margins still hold up and which may need a rethink.

See what the community is saying about Neste Oyj

TTM profit of €1.5b marks a clear break from recent losses

• Over the last 12 months, Neste Oyj generated €1.5b in net income on €20.6b of revenue, compared with a reported loss in the TTM period a year earlier, while quarterly net income in Q2 2026 reached €765m on €6.0b of revenue.
• What stands out for the bullish narrative is that this return to profit sits alongside a five year earnings decline of about 30.7% per year, which means:
  • The recent €1.5b TTM profit and €1.98 EPS support bullish expectations for higher earnings and margins, but they follow several years where earnings moved in the opposite direction.
  • Bulls looking for a long term earnings ramp will need to reconcile this stronger recent profitability with the history of declining earnings that the data highlights.

Bulls argue that this €1.5b profit could be the start of a stronger phase for Neste Oyj, so it is worth seeing how that view is built and where it might be stretched in the dedicated bull case analysis 🐂 Neste Oyj Bull Case.

Share price below DCF fair value while P/E sits near industry level

• With the stock at €31.43, the provided DCF fair value of €54.77 points to a gap of about 42.6%, and the trailing P/E of 15.9x is below the 19.2x peer average but slightly above the 15.3x European Oil & Gas industry figure.
• For the bearish narrative, this mix of a lower P/E than peers and a large stated gap to DCF fair value is important because:
  • Bears highlight forecasts that earnings may decline by around 0.3% per year over the next three years, which could help explain why the market price of €31.43 sits well below the €54.77 DCF fair value figure.
  • If earnings do not fall as those cautious forecasts suggest, the combination of a sub peer P/E and a large discount to DCF fair value could challenge the more pessimistic stance.

Skeptics often point to the earnings forecasts to justify caution on Neste Oyj, so it can be useful to see exactly how that cautious view is built and what would need to go right or wrong for it to play out 🐻 Neste Oyj Bear Case.

Q2 2026 profitability contrasts with flat earnings forecasts

• Q2 2026 basic EPS of €1.00 and net income of €765m compare with TTM EPS of €1.98 and TTM net income of €1.5b, while consensus points to revenue growing about 5.0% per year and earnings declining roughly 0.3% per year over the next three years.
• Analysts' consensus view tries to balance these signals by treating the strong recent quarter and TTM profitability as progress but not a straight line, because:
  • The forecast of about 5.0% annual revenue growth alongside a small projected decline in earnings suggests expectations for some pressure on margins despite the recent return to profit.
  • The mixed picture, with a profitable TTM period yet forecasts for slightly weaker earnings ahead, helps explain why the current share price is close to some analyst targets even as the provided DCF fair value is higher.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Neste Oyj on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

If the mixed signals around Neste Oyj leave you unsure, that is the point. It is worth weighing the upside and downside yourself by reviewing the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

See What Else Is Out There

Neste Oyj now reports a return to profit, but the mix of past earnings declines and forecasts for slightly weaker margins leaves the outlook looking uneven.

If that combination of uncertain earnings trends and a discounted share price bothers you, you can quickly compare it with other companies screened for 247 high quality undervalued stocks to see where the balance of quality and value currently looks more compelling.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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