FIRST GRAIN BULL MARKET IN YEARS. WHAT’S DRIVING IT?

(WEAT) (SOYB) (CORN) (ZWU26) (ZCU26) (ZSX26) (TAGS) (DBA) 

“FIRST GRAIN BULL MARKET IN YEARS. WHAT’S DRIVING IT?”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter and Co-Producer of Climatelligence

Scott Mathews - Editor and Co-Producer of Climatelligence

• July 24, 2026

Image design by BestWeather, Inc. rendered by ChatGPT

The first bull market in wheat in years. El Niño and the wars are creating inflationary concerns in some commodity markets. Below is a description of why wheat prices have soared over the last few weeks. With respect to corn and soybeans, the severe drought in western Europe, combined with 30% of the western Midwest corn and soybean drought plus other developing drought conditions have helped prices soar. Nevertheless, other than some spotty areas of central and eastern corn belt dryness, No extreme sustained heat is likely heading into early August.

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How often have wheat prices rallied from July to December during moderate or strong El Niño events? 

About 70% of the time, wheat prices have rallied by an average of an additional 14%.

Image Source: BestWeather, Inc.

Q) - What is driving the first bull market in years in wheat futures?

A) - The wars overseas and the lack of exports coming out of the Middle East and Ukraine.

Image design by BestWeather, Inc. rendered by ChatGPT

 

 

Big time heat in Europe and the northern Plains spring wheat areas: While the main growth stages of wheat are now over, reductions in both wheat crops (France and the Dakotas) are still occurring due to these extreme temperatures. Dryness in Australia's west, El Niño, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are lowering wheat production. While much of New South Wales and Queensland in eastern regions received important spring rains for planting, the western areas are at risk for crop losses.

Image design by BestWeather, Inc. rendered by ChatGPT

The lowest US wheat crop since the early 1960s: The drought in the Plains last spring and lower acreage are creating a squeeze in the market. Millers and food processors in the United States are scrambling.

SO WHAT SHOULD YOU DO IN THE WHEAT/CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKET? GET A TWO-WEEK FREE TRIAL TO WEATHERWEALTH, OR OUR LOWER PRICED CLIMATELLIGENCE NEWSLETTER BELOW 

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We greatly appreciate your interest in Commodity Weather Intelligence!

 

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the BestWeather Team

 

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He is also a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA-registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short-term and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and energy markets, he holds a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.