Can NewtekOne Sustain Its Deposit Momentum Through the Second Quarter?

Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Newtekone typically reports earnings during market hours or after market close, meaning Day 0 captures either immediate intraday reaction or anticipation, while Day +1 reflects the first full trading session response.

Historical price behavior shows NEWT experiences moderate volatility around earnings, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 3.61% and Day +1 move of 3.43%. The Day +1 range averages 8.17%, indicating significant intraday volatility as investors digest results. Notable outliers include a 10.61% surge on Day 0 in November 2024 and a 6.46% Day +1 gain in February 2025, both suggesting the stock can deliver substantial moves when results or guidance exceed expectations. Conversely, the January 2026 report saw a 5.73% Day +1 decline despite a positive Day 0 reaction, highlighting how follow-through can reverse initial sentiment. Investors should prepare for a potential move in the 3-4% range immediately following the release, with the possibility of extended volatility into the next session.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an 8.54% expected move through the August 21 expiration, significantly higher than the historical average Day 0 move of 3.61% and even exceeding the Day +1 range average of 8.17%. This elevated implied volatility suggests options traders are anticipating a larger-than-typical reaction to this earnings report, possibly reflecting uncertainty around the downward estimate revisions and the company's ability to provide reassuring guidance.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analysts maintain a cautious stance on Newtekone heading into earnings, with a 3.50 average recommendation that sits between Hold and Buy on the five-point scale. The consensus reflects a divided Street: 2 Strong Buys and 6 Holds, with no sell ratings. This distribution suggests analysts see value but lack conviction for aggressive accumulation at current levels.

The $17.20 mean price target implies 19.2% upside from the current price of $14.43, offering meaningful appreciation potential if the company can execute. However, the wide target range—from a low of $14.00 (essentially at current levels) to a high of $25.00 (73% upside)—reveals significant disagreement about NEWT's prospects. The low-end target suggests at least one analyst sees limited near-term upside, while the high-end target indicates others believe the market is significantly undervaluing the company's earnings power.

Sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with the same 3.50 average recommendation and identical rating distribution. This stability suggests analysts are waiting for the earnings release to provide clarity before adjusting their views, rather than preemptively repositioning ahead of the report.

Part 4: Technical Picture

Newtekone's technical setup heading into earnings shows a stock that has built a solid foundation over the past year but is experiencing near-term consolidation. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently registers 88% Buy, down from 100% Buy both one week and one month ago, indicating recent softening in momentum despite an overall positive technical picture.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests near-term momentum has cooled considerably, reflecting recent price weakness and the stock's position below its shortest-term moving averages
• Medium-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal indicates the intermediate trend remains firmly positive, supported by the stock's position well above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
• Long-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal confirms the longer-term uptrend is intact, with the stock trading 15.6% above its 200-day moving average at $12.48

Trend Characteristics: The Strong trend strength combined with a Weakening direction suggests NEWT is in a healthy longer-term uptrend that is experiencing normal near-term profit-taking or consolidation ahead of the earnings event.

The stock's relationship with its moving averages reveals this dynamic clearly: NEWT trades above its 50-day ($14.02), 100-day ($13.13), and 200-day ($12.48) moving averages, confirming the intermediate and long-term uptrends remain intact. However, the current price of $14.43 sits below the 5-day ($14.66), 10-day ($14.88), and 20-day ($14.75) moving averages, indicating recent weakness and suggesting the stock has pulled back from recent highs.

Key technical support lies at the $14.02 50-day moving average, which has provided a floor during the recent consolidation. A break below that level on disappointing earnings could trigger further selling toward the $13.13 100-day average. On the upside, reclaiming the $14.75 20-day moving average would signal renewed momentum and open the door to a test of recent highs near $14.88. The overall setup is cautiously supportive—the longer-term trend remains healthy, but the recent pullback means the stock lacks near-term momentum heading into the release, making the earnings reaction critical for determining whether NEWT resumes its uptrend or requires further consolidation.