BNP Paribas (ENXTPA:BNP) Stock Faces 2.8% NPL Ratio Testing Bullish Earnings Narrative

BNP Paribas (ENXTPA:BNP) has put out its Q2 2026 scorecard with revenue of about €13.1 billion and net income of roughly €4.3 billion, setting the tone for how investors weigh the stock at around €105.92. The bank has seen quarterly revenue move from €11.7 billion in Q2 2025 to €13.5 billion in Q1 2026 and €13.1 billion in Q2 2026, while EPS tracked from €2.64 in Q2 2025 to €2.93 in Q1 2026. This provides a clear view of the top line and per share trend heading into this release. With higher net profit margins already on the board, these results keep the focus firmly on how sustainable BNP Paribas's profitability profile looks from here.

See our full analysis for BNP Paribas.

With the latest numbers in hand, the next step is to see how this earnings picture lines up with the main narratives around BNP Paribas, where some storylines about growth and risk will be reinforced and others may be tested.

See what the community is saying about BNP Paribas

21.4% earnings growth sets the backdrop

• Over the last 12 months, BNP Paribas generated about €50.5b in revenue and €13.2b in net income, with earnings up 21.4% year on year and a five year earnings compound growth of 10.2% per year.
• Consensus narrative points to expansion in wealth management, digital platforms and sustainable finance as key earnings drivers, and the recent €13.2b trailing net income and higher net margin of 26.1% versus 23.5% a year earlier give solid support to that bullish angle, although:
  • Forecast earnings growth of about 6.4% per year is slower than the 11.7% expected for the French market, so the pace that bulls expect is more measured than the recent 21.4% gain.
  • Revenue is forecast to grow around 5.8% per year, only slightly ahead of the broader market at 5.6%, which keeps expectations grounded even as fee based and digital growth are in focus.

Supporters who want to see how this recent 21.4% earnings growth fits into the optimistic long term story around wealth management and digital expansion can go deeper into the full bull case here 🐂 BNP Paribas Bull Case

Credit quality and a 2.8% NPL ratio

• On the risk side, BNP Paribas carries a non performing loan ratio of 2.8% and an allowance that covers 61% of those loans, alongside non performing loan balances reported between €19.8b and €26.3b over recent quarters.
• Bears focus on this credit profile and the bank's funding mix, arguing that the 2.8% NPL ratio, 61% coverage and the fact that 58% of liabilities come from higher risk external borrowing all sit uneasily with the bullish growth story, especially when:
  • The asset management business is flagged for ongoing revenue headwinds into 2026 and 2027, which could limit the benefit of any improvement in loan performance.
  • Potential tightening of regulatory capital rules and higher capital expectations could limit flexibility if credit conditions worsen, which is central to the more cautious narrative.

If you are weighing that 2.8% NPL ratio against the growth story, it is worth reading the full cautious case that sets out the key credit and regulatory concerns in one place 🐻 BNP Paribas Bear Case

P/E of 8.8x vs €113.19 analyst target

• BNP Paribas trades on a trailing P/E of 8.8x, below peers at 13.1x, the European banks industry at 11.9x and the French market at 16.3x, while analysts as a group point to a price target of €113.19 against the current share price of €105.92.
• Analysts' consensus view is that this lower P/E sits alongside a business mix that is both supported and constrained, and the figures in this set of results capture that balance:
  • On one side, trailing 12 month revenue of about €50.5b and net income of €13.2b, along with expectations for revenue to grow around 5.8% per year and earnings around 6.4% per year, help explain why many see the stock as relatively inexpensive on 8.8x P/E.
  • On the other, the unstable dividend record, reliance on Eurozone markets described as lower growth and the credit metrics already discussed help explain why the analyst target of €113.19 is only modestly above the current €105.92 price rather than implying a very large gap.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for BNP Paribas on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With sentiment on BNP Paribas split between its earnings profile and the highlighted risks and rewards, it makes sense to review the figures yourself and then move quickly to shape your own stance by checking the 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

For all its earnings strength, BNP Paribas still faces questions around credit quality, dividend consistency and a funding mix that leans on higher risk external borrowing.

If those credit and funding concerns leave you wanting sturdier options, compare BNP Paribas with companies screened for stronger financial resilience through the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (419 results).

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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