Finnair Oyj Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Last week, you might have seen that Finnair Oyj (HEL:FIA1S) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.8% to €4.39 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of €917m were what the analysts expected, Finnair Oyj surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of €0.28 per share, an impressive 47% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Finnair Oyj's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of €3.48b in 2026. This would be a satisfactory 4.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 7.3% to €0.56. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €3.46b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.43 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations following these results.

View our latest analysis for Finnair Oyj

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €3.63, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Finnair Oyj analyst has a price target of €4.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €2.90. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Finnair Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.3% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Finnair Oyj is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Finnair Oyj's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Finnair Oyj. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Finnair Oyj analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Finnair Oyj (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.