US stock outlook | The three major stock index futures rose sharply, oil prices fell below the 100 yuan mark, and Trump's new tariffs rose after Intel (INTC.US) performance came into effect

Pre-market market trends

1. Before the US stock market on July 24 (Friday), futures on the three major US stock indexes rose sharply. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.46%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.25%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.15%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 1.03%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.18%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.42%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.70%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 2.44% to $89.94 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 2.81% to $97.86 per barrel.

Market news

Trump threatened a “large-scale attack” on Iran, and the global inflation alarm sounded again. Trump said he is considering launching a “large-scale attack” on Iran to force Iran back to the negotiation table. This move may further push up energy prices that have put pressure on the global economy. In an interview, Trump said he was “close to making a decision” and that the crackdown would be “stronger than before.” The report quoted him as saying that Iran is not ready to reach an agreement, and “the pain they have suffered is not enough.” This statement highlights the dilemma faced by Trump — the temporary cease-fire agreement broke down due to renewed fighting, and the Strait of Hormuz was almost blocked. On Thursday, Trump warned on Truth Social that if Iran and the Houthis they support in Yemen attack merchant ships, they will face “significant military punishment.” This week, the Houthis claimed to have launched an attack on Saudi oil tankers, opening up a new front in the midst of a conflict that has already pushed oil prices to break through $100 per barrel and US retail gasoline prices to more than $4 per gallon. According to foreign media quoting Iranian and Iraqi officials, the Iraqi prime minister brought Trump's cease-fire proposal to Iran, but Iran rejected it on Thursday, and the mediation efforts were once again thwarted.

Trump launches new tariff arrangements. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) issued a notice on the 23rd local time announcing the imposition of 10% to 12.5% tariffs on dozens of countries and regions in the name of so-called “forced labor” in accordance with section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act to replace global import tariffs that are about to expire. The new tariffs will take effect on the 24th EST (12:00 noon Beijing time on the 24th).

The Black Sea and the Red Sea are doubly anxious! US oil was frantically “snapped up” by Asian and European buyers, and WTI premiums skyrocketed. The rise in demand for US crude oil in Asia and Europe is one of the first signs of growing market concerns about the sufficiency of oil supply at a time of frequent geopolitical hotspots. The Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, adding a new element of fluctuation to the Iranian conflict. Meanwhile, after Ukrainian drones attacked shipping in the Black Sea, Kazakhstan cut oil production, prompting buyers to turn to similar crude oil grades, including supplies from the Permian Basin. According to traders, on Thursday, the September shipment of WTI crude oil delivered along the US Gulf coast had a premium of about 5 US dollars per barrel over the global benchmark oil price. The day before, the difference was still $2. Since the US and Israel triggered the Iran conflict in late February, demand for US crude oil has been strong due to its remoteness from the war zone. According to Kpler Ltd data, US oil exports soared to a record high of 5.66 million barrels per day in May, highlighting its role as the “supplier of last resort.”

Soaring oil prices have reignited the threat of inflation, and the global bond market is facing a new round of intense sell-off. As the escalation of the situation in the Middle East pushes international oil prices to break through the $100 mark, concerns about inflation are once again on the rise, causing the global bond market to experience a new round of sharp sell-off. Investors who previously bet that the bond market will be adjusted to the bottom will once again suffer losses, and the world's major central banks will also face critical credibility tests. This round of global bond sell-off is unprecedented. The average yield of the Bloomberg Global Treasury Bond Index, which tracks the performance of global investment-grade national sovereign bonds, has soared to 3.68%, breaking through the high of three years ago and reaching the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. The benchmark index is currently facing its biggest monthly decline since March. If the bond market sell-off trend continues to ferment, it will trigger a series of chain risks: global debt sustainability issues will become more prominent, global corporate financing costs will rise further, and at the same time, market capital may begin a trend of rotation from the stock market to other assets, causing cross-asset fluctuations.

The internal rift in the AI bull market widens! Analyst advice: stay away from “losing blood” tech giants and buy chip stocks. At a time when US tech giants are collectively recovering, Ben Reitzes, head of technology research at Melius Research, advised investors to avoid hyperscale cloud service providers such as Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Meta (META.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US) because these companies have failed to generate significant cash flow. In an interview, he said, “I'm still not optimistic about hyperscale data center operators for the simple reason: they can't generate real valuable cash flow. Who cares? Buy a chip company.” On Thursday, the technology sector of US stocks was sold off, and the total market value of the “Big Seven” stocks evaporated by nearly 800 billion US dollars in a single day. Among them, Google's parent company Alphabet fell 7%, and Tesla plummeted by about 15%, all of which recorded the worst single-day performance in more than a year. These two companies have just released financial reports. Huge capital expenditure has raised concerns in the market, and negative free cash flow is facing strict scrutiny from investors. Reitzes believes investors should pay less attention to growing capital expenditure and pay more attention to margin pressure brought about by these investments.

The AI debt tsunami compounded the impact of oil prices, and technology bonds were completely destroyed by “multiple shocks”. Bonds of some major US tech companies fell collectively on Thursday due to renewed market concerns about the continued expansion of debt caused by the boom in artificial intelligence investment, compounded by the escalation of the Middle East conflict. As concerns about inflation heats up, long-term treasury yields have risen, further driving up the financing costs of companies that have already invested hundreds of billions of dollars in AI construction. AI has invested in huge loans — the total amount has reached about 350 billion US dollars so far this year alone — has put continuous pressure on the bond market, and the market is already showing signs that it is difficult for investors to absorb large amounts of new debt. At the same time, the market is also generally questioning whether AI can bring sufficient profits to cover high costs. Another sign of heightened risk aversion is that, according to LSEG Lipper data, investors withdrew $7.1 billion in cash from US high-tier bond funds in the week ending Wednesday, the largest single weekly outflow since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020.

Individual stock news

Nvidia will reportedly increase the price of video memory kits involving GDDR6 and GDDR7. According to reports, Nvidia (NVDA.US) has issued a price increase notice to its board card partners. This price increase involves GDDR6 and GDDR7 video memory kits. According to reports, when Nvidia sells products to board partners, it will supply GPU chips and VRAM (video memory) chips in packaged kits (kits), and partners are responsible for installing these chips on PCBs (printed circuit boards) of their own design to produce customized graphics cards. Since the price of GDDR6 and GDDR7 video memory kits is about to rise again, it is expected that AIB (add-in board, video card board) manufacturers will have no choice but to increase the price of video cards accordingly.

The 94.4 billion won sky-high divorce case “settled”! Cash was cut to avoid a split crisis, and the SK Hynix (SKHY.US) alert was lifted. The “Century Divorce Case” between South Korea's SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won and his ex-wife, Roh So-young (daughter of former South Korean President Roh Tae-woo), has ushered in the latest verdict. The court finally ruled that Choi Tae-won paid 944 billion won (approximately US$644 million/RMB 4.37 billion) in cash property installments to his ex-wife. This sky-high price ruling quickly drew close attention from global capital markets to SK Group and its core semiconductor giant, SK Hynix. In terms of the property division method, the court adopted the method of price compensation, that is, Choi Tae-won continues to hold shares and uses cash to make up the difference in Roh So-young's due share. This move is due to the consideration of maintaining the company's operating rights and ensuring the stability of the corporate governance structure. The court finally made it clear that the installment would be paid in “cash”, which was a major benefit for SK Hynix.

The wave of AI computing power drove CPU demand to “take off”, and doubts about the OEM business completely dissipated, and Intel (INTC.US) Q2 revenue welcomed the strongest growth rate in 15 years. According to financial reports, for the second fiscal quarter ending June 27, Intel achieved revenue of 16.13 billion US dollars, up 25.4% year on year, the strongest quarterly revenue growth rate since 2011; adjusted earnings per share were 0.42 US dollars, and adjusted gross margin reached 41.8%, a significant increase of 12 percentage points over the same period last year. As a comparison, the market's original average expected revenue was only US$14.42 billion, earnings per share of US$0.21, and gross margin of 38.8%. Management emphasized that this is the seventh consecutive quarter where the company's results have exceeded financial guidance, and demand from all business units continues to exceed growing supply. What made investors even more excited was the guidance for the third quarter. Intel expects revenue for the quarter to reach 15.8 billion US dollars to 16.8 billion US dollars. Even at the lower end of this range, it easily surpassed analysts' average estimate of 15.1 billion US dollars; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be 0.38 US dollars, which is also far higher than the market's forecast of 0.27 US dollars.

Oracle (ORCL.US) won the US Department of Defense's 10-year software order, with a total value of nearly 7 billion US dollars. The US Department of Defense announced on Thursday that it has signed an enterprise-grade software agreement with software giant Oracle for a maximum period of 10 years and a total value of nearly 7 billion US dollars. Boosted by this news, Oracle's stock price rose by about 3% during after-hours trading at one point. This contract, called the “Enterprise Software Agreement,” is being negotiated under the leadership of the US Department of Navy. The aim is to consolidate distributed locally deployed software licenses from various departments of the US Department of Defense, the US Coast Guard, and the intelligence community into a single contract. The basic term of the agreement is 5 years, and there is also a 5-year renewal option, which covers perpetual and subscription software licensing, maintenance and consulting services. Before the market on Friday, as of press release, the company's shares were up nearly 4%.

Due to “chip inflation,” Apple (AAPL.US) is requesting a 20% reduction in the price of OLED panels for iPhone 18 high-end models. As the price of memory chips continues to soar to drive up the overall cost of iPhones, Apple is putting pressure on the upstream supply chain to drastically reduce the price of OLED screens by its display panel suppliers. On July 24, according to foreign media reports, Apple proposed to the panel supplier that the price of the OLED panel used in the iPhone 18 Pro Max is about 70 US dollars, which is about 20% lower than the previous generation. Industry insiders estimate that the average price of panels currently supplied by Samsung Display and LG Display is $66.5, which is even lower than Apple's pricing.

The 2027 deadline forced customers to accelerate their “cloud migration”, and the SAP (SAP.US) Q2 cloud business exceeded expectations by 24%. German software giant SAP SE announced on Thursday that cloud business revenue in the second quarter increased 24% year-on-year at a fixed exchange rate to 6.28 billion euros (about 7.1 billion US dollars) due to customers speeding up the migration from local deployment licenses to the cloud before the deadline for the company to stop supporting old software versions, which is higher than the 6.26 billion euros expected by market compilers. For the quarter ending June 30, the German enterprise software giant recorded earnings of $2.15 per share, higher than analysts' unanimous expectations of $2.00. Revenue for the second quarter increased 9% year over year to US$11.24 billion, which is roughly in line with expectations. The cloud business order backlog (current cloud backlog) climbed 26% year over year to US$26.06 billion, which also exceeded market expectations of 23.8%.

The AI computing power war spread to “advanced packaging”: Nvidia (NVDA.US) spent $1.5 billion to increase AMKR.US technology (AMKR.US) and join hands to expand its packaging and testing plant in Arizona. Nvidia and Imak Technology signed a $1.5 billion agreement to help strengthen the latter's chip packaging factory, as part of a broader move to expand the semiconductor business in the US. According to a statement on Thursday, the agreement involves an advance payment from Nvidia that will help EMAG increase its manufacturing capacity in Arizona. The two companies said the collaboration will focus on chip packaging and testing technology in the field of artificial intelligence.

American Express (AXP.US) Q2 revenue fell short of expectations. GAAP earnings per share were $4.53, exceeding expectations of $0.13; revenue was $19.64 billion, which was $60 million lower than expected. The comprehensive credit loss provision was $1.1 billion, compared to $1.4 billion a year ago. American Express raised its forecast for fiscal 2026 revenue growth to 10%.

Key economic data and event forecasts

Preliminary US SPGI manufacturing PMI value for July, preliminary US SPGI service industry PMI value for July, preliminary US SPGI comprehensive PMI value for July