CITIC Construction Investment: The REITs industry is under pressure and exceeding expectations, and the market is expected to usher in a steady recovery in the second half of the year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that 81 REITs disclosed their 2026 second quarterly report. The overall performance achievement rate of the next new project was over 100%, the overall performance of the stock project was stable, and business differentiation continued. Revenue, EBITDA, and allocable amounts of the 65 existing REITs included in the statistics increased by 3.0%, 1.7%, and 2.0%, respectively, but profits and distributions declined slightly from month to month. By business type, the guaranteed housing sector operates steadily and benefits from expansion; the consumer sector still shows resilience during the off-season, and some high-quality projects continue to show growth; industrial parks and warehousing and logistics rents and occupancy rates continue to be pressured; highway operations are generally stable but project performance is fragmented; the energy sector is affected by resource fluctuations and pressure on some new energy electricity prices, and subsidy repayments support distribution. In terms of investment strategy, the primary market selects targets for reasonable valuation, and the secondary market seizes opportunities for marginal improvement in the supply and demand pattern.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

Overview

The overall performance achievement rate for the second quarter of the second quarter was over 100%. The overall performance of existing projects was stable, and business differentiation continued. (1) In terms of achievement rate, a total of 16 new REITs projects were selected to calculate performance achievement rates. Overall, the average achievement rates of revenue, EBITDA, and allocable amount for the second quarter of 2026 were 109.8%, 114.5%, and 113.9%, respectively, exceeding expectations; (2) In terms of performance, the overall performance of the 65 existing REITs remained stable in the second quarter, and the tenancy sector continued to grow at a high rate, and industrial parks and warehousing logistics were still under pressure. The average year-on-year changes in overall revenue, EBITDA and amount available for distribution were 3.0%, 1.7%, and 2.0%, respectively, and maintained a slight increase overall.

Business format

Guaranteed housing and consumption remain resilient, industrial parks, warehousing and logistics are still under pressure, and the performance of transportation and energy projects is divided. (1) Industrial parks: Performance is under year-on-year pressure, occupancy rate differentiation intensifies, and rents are still bottoming out; (2) warehousing: rent pressure drags down performance, marginal occupancy rate repair for some projects; (3) Guaranteed housing: occupancy rates remain high, rent increases steadily, and expansion drives sector growth; (4) Consumption: operating resilience in the off-season, and revenue and profit continue to grow year on year; (5) Data centers: revenue and profit continue to exceed expectations; (5) Data centers: revenue and profit continue to exceed expectations, high billing rates and high listing support rates continue to operate steadily;; (6) Transportation: The overall operation side is stable, project performance is divided, and the timing of cash payments amplifies and fluctuations in distribution; (7) ) Municipal administration: The immediate need to support stable operations. Hydrology, seasonality, and repayment rhythms have led to performance differentiation; (8) Energy: Fluctuations in natural resources and declining electricity prices drag down operations, and the pace of subsidy repayment supports distribution.

Investment advice

The REITs market is expected to experience a steady recovery in the second half of the year. The primary market selects reasonable valuation targets, and the secondary market seizes opportunities for marginal improvement in the supply and demand pattern. The primary market development and matchmaking strategy focuses on prudent targets for valuation and quotation inquiries. The secondary market focuses on three main lines: first, stable anti-cyclical sectors at the molecular level, including consumer, policy leases, municipal environmental protection, and higher-stability circuits such as hydropower and thermal power in energy; second, high-prosperity sectors in line with national strategies, covering highway projects for data centers, high-quality warehousing and logistics, and traffic volume restoration; third, targets with strong expansion demands from original shareholders and high-quality reserve assets.

risk analysis

1. Risk that approval and issuance progress falls short of expectations; 2. Risk of policy introduction falling short of expectations; 3. Risk of secondary market fluctuations.