Vår Energi ASA Just Beat EPS By 55%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders of Vår Energi ASA (OB:VAR) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to kr49.30 following its latest second-quarter results. Revenues were US$3.7b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.33, an impressive 55% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Vår Energi are now predicting revenues of US$12.7b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 41% to US$0.74. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.66 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the nice gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Vår Energi

The consensus price target was unchanged at kr49.88, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Vår Energi analyst has a price target of kr60.33 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr38.76. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Vår Energi's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 42% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 5.8% per year. So it's clear with the acceleration in growth, Vår Energi is expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Vår Energi following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Vår Energi's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vår Energi going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Vår Energi is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.