Boliden AB (publ) Recorded A 10% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that Boliden AB (publ) (STO:BOL) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.4% to kr475 in the past week. Revenues were kr26b, 10% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of kr7.81 being in line with what the analysts forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Boliden are now predicting revenues of kr116.4b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a decent 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 5.9% to kr41.99 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr119.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr42.82 in 2026. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

See our latest analysis for Boliden

The average price target was steady at kr540even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Boliden analyst has a price target of kr690 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr448. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Boliden's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 26% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Boliden to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded Boliden's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Boliden going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Boliden , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.