CITIC Securities: Q2 light manufacturing profit margin improvement focuses on high dividend leaders and structural highlights of cross-border e-commerce

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the 2026Q2 increase in the cost of metal packaging, box tile paper, and specialty paper was passed on smoothly, leading to improvements at the bottom of the industry. Overseas markets, cross-border e-commerce, brand overseas, and overseas localization brand operation models have performed well. In the domestic market, under cost pressure, leading companies with industrial advantages have begun to raise prices, while embracing AI technology as a new gripper for industry innovation. A leading company in the industry that actively grasps high dividends, undervalues, has industrial advantages, and can take the lead in increasing price and efficiency.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

Household and export: 2026Q2 pressure continues, domestic sales may stabilize in 2026H2, and overseas cross-border e-commerce will be a highlight.

Among them, the customized home furnishing sector is the most prominent. The direct impact of the new home delivery chain is relatively limited, yet it also faces the double pressure of the country's supplementary base and weak terminal consumption. Overseas cross-border e-commerce is a structural highlight of the sector.

A must for light industry: Domestic market and cost side are under pressure, and new businesses and overseas markets contribute to growth.

Paper-based industry chain and packaging: Q2 profit improved, H2 trend continued.

According to information disclosed by Orekin, the 2026Q2 two-piece metal packaging will continue to increase in price by 2-3 points. At the same time, demand for three-piece cans is stable, and profit margins for single cans will improve. The main packaging business of Yutong Technology (002831.SZ) was stable; the domestic profit of Zhongxin Co., Ltd. (603091.SH) improved, and new production capacity in Thailand was successfully released.

Tobacco industry chain: policies send positive signals and strengthen leading advantages.

SMOORE International benefited from the reopening of the US compliant flavored vaping market; China Tobacco Hong Kong was affected by the decline in US tobacco imports and the phased adjustment of the domestic duty-free market business process. Tobacco categories in the UK and the US continued to increase rapidly, and the growth of vaping e-cigarettes in the US exceeded expectations.

Risk factors:

The risk of a sharp rise in raw materials, energy, and shipping prices; increased risk of industry competition; risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations; risk of public crisis events.