The recent earnings posted by Yamashita Health Care Holdings,Inc. (TSE:9265) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. We think this is due to investors looking beyond the statutory profits and being concerned with what they see.
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Yamashita Health Care HoldingsInc has an accrual ratio of 0.44 for the year to May 2026. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Even though it reported a profit of JP¥648.0m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through JP¥1.2b in the last year. It's worth noting that Yamashita Health Care HoldingsInc generated positive FCF of JP¥307m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Yamashita Health Care HoldingsInc.
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Yamashita Health Care HoldingsInc didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. For this reason, we think that Yamashita Health Care HoldingsInc's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, Yamashita Health Care HoldingsInc has 4 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Yamashita Health Care HoldingsInc's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
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