Pacific Securities: Beer Industry Scenario Reshaping, Channel Reconstruction, and Product Reinventing 3D Drive “Refined, Fresh, and New” to Open a New Round of High-End

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Pacific Securities released a research report saying that the beer industry has entered the inventory stage of stable volume and price increases. The growth logic has switched to a three-dimensional drive of scenario reshaping, channel restructuring, and product remodeling, and structural upgrades continue to raise the profit center. It is recommended to focus on industry leaders with strong product development capabilities, stable channel cooperation, strong execution of structural upgrades, leading “fine/fresh/new” and new retail layouts, and regional leaders with outstanding flexibility in gross profit restoration due to the resonance of rising tonnage prices and declining costs.

Pacific Securities's main views are as follows:

Industry pattern: total volume stabilizes, structural upgrading continues

In recent years, the total production center of domestic beer has stabilized at 3500-36 million kiloliters. In 2024, the total volume of the industry reached 734.7 billion yuan. From 2019 to 2024, the net interest rate of the Shenwan beer industry increased from 6.48% to 14.68%. As of 2025Q3, CR5's market share exceeded 70%, and has been in the stage of steady volume price increase and stock competition for a long time.

Scenario Reshaping: Generational Change Promotes Diversified Consumption

Iterative population structure reconstruction of underlying demand: According to 2024 population sample data estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of traditional drinkers fell back to 310 million after 60/70/80, and generation Z became the core of the increase after 95/00. The scale of traditional business meals and multi-person banquets continues to shrink. The proportion of small meals for 2-4 people has risen to 58% in 2025, and the motivation for drinking alcohol is shifting to emotional self-healing and private gatherings. Non-current drinking channels such as home, outdoor, and late at night are rapidly expanding. According to Meituan flash sales data, in 2025, residential alcohol orders increased 25.8% year-on-year, while orders for drinks in parks and scenic spots increased 107.8%, and instant retail sales accounted for 45.7% of nighttime orders from 21:00-23:00.

Channel restructuring: new retail reshapes the competitive landscape

Through a short link circulation system, the pain points of lengthy traditional distribution chains and inefficient turnover are solved, and four new business formats have opened up industry growth. Instant retail accounts for a high proportion of young people, with stronger consumer stickiness and purchasing power, and is expected to become the core channel in this round. In 2024, the sales volume of fine wine and short brewed beer accounts for more than 40%, orders increased by 89.5% year on year, and the customer unit price is 30% higher than traditional channels; in 2025, the growth rate of private brands is 49.6%, and the gross margin of own alcohol can reach 70%. Continuously optimize the industry's capacity utilization rate and profitability through OEM cooperation. Community beer and wine stations have accelerated offline penetration and cultivated consumer mentality. In 2025, the number of stores increased by 41% year-on-year. As of 2026H1, the number of Fulu stores has exceeded 3,000. Mass sales discounts rely on affordable craft brewing to deepen the sinking market. Take Mingming's busy schedule as an example. The penetration rate of stores has sunk 66%, and the long-term growth potential is outstanding.

Reinventing categories: “Refined, Fresh, New” opens a new round of high-end transformation

Refining (craft brewing process): This is the high-end core category of this round. The gross margin of craft beer generally exceeds 50%, which is superior to traditional industrial beer. The industry's production capacity layout continues to increase. In 2025, the total production capacity of craft beer will reach 450,000 kiloliters, double that of 2023. In 2024, retail sales of craft beer were 63.2 billion yuan, with a penetration rate of about 6%-7%. There is plenty of room for a 25% increase compared to the US. Fresh (short cold chain): Cold chain logistics continues to be improved, promoting short-term preservation purees to break through geographical restrictions and forming a stable premium for fresh products. In 2024, the number of domestic cold chain transport vehicles increased to 495,000, and the cold storage capacity increased to 253 million cubic meters, driving fresh beer distribution losses down from 12% to 1.8%. New (product innovation): Match generational changes in consumption, broaden population boundaries, and continue to explore new volume. Low-alcohol fruit beers and tea beers can handle female growth. The health trend is driving the rapid expansion of the non-alcoholic beer market, and the CAGR is expected to exceed 30% in the next three years. IP co-branded, lightweight small cans are suitable for online planting.

Risk warning: risk of fluctuating raw material costs; the process of high-end and tonnage price increase is slowing down, industry competition intensifies; promotion of new products falls short of expectations; food safety risks.