Dongxing Securities: Single ticket revenue rebounds in the express delivery industry, and the mid-term pre-increase verifies the effectiveness of anti-domestic volume

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongxing Securities released a research report saying that due to the existence of an anti-domestic tax policy, the duration of this round of profit recovery is expected to be longer than the previous round of the industry's upward cycle, which began in the second half of '21. Since May, due to price fluctuations in the industry, there has been a correction in stock prices of Tongda related companies. The bank proposed a left-hand layout, focusing on the leading companies in service quality, Zhongtong Express - W (02057) and Yuantong Express (600233.SH), and Shentong Express (002468.SZ), which has the most obvious improvement in operating data.

Dongxing Securities's main views are as follows:

Incidents

In June, the number of express delivery service companies across the country completed business about 17.51 billion units, up 3.8% year on year, and the growth rate declined from May; the price of single express delivery tickets increased slightly month-on-month, and price competition eased somewhat.

Price competition has eased, and single ticket revenue has rebounded

In June 2026, the national express delivery service business completed about 17.51 billion units, up 3.8% year on year, and the growth rate declined from May. Among them, the same city component business volume decreased by 8.2% year on year, and the offsite business increased 4.9% year on year.

The overall growth rate of the industry volume declined slightly in June

The growth rate of Shentong continues to lead; although the growth rate of Yuantong parts has declined, it is still higher than the industry average. In terms of single ticket revenue, Shentong's single ticket revenue increased 6.0% year on year, and the increase was narrower than in May; Yunda increased 10.5% year on year, the increase increased; and Yuantong fell 1.9% year on year, narrowing the decline. On a month-on-month basis, Shentong's single ticket revenue decreased by 0.03 yuan month-on-month, while Yunda and Yuantong rose 0.05 and 0.02 yuan respectively.

Combined with single ticket revenue data, it can be seen that the intensity of price competition in the industry abated in June, and anti-domestic sales continued to gain strength

According to the volume growth rate and changes in single ticket revenue in recent months, the bank found that if companies want to increase their share in the short term, the decline in single ticket revenue in that month will also be quite obvious, which means that the cost of companies competing for market share is increasing. The bank believes that this is a sign of the change in the industry from an incremental market to a stock market in the context of anti-domestic sales, and that the cost of competing for stock customers will be significantly higher than that for incremental customers.

Proactive performance of the Ministry of Communications verifies the effectiveness of countervailing internal volume

Faced with the intensification of price competition shown by the industry in May, the competent authorities continued to follow up on regulatory measures. At the end of April, after the State Post Office held a symposium of heads of major express delivery companies requesting continued deepening anti-domestic legislation, in June, the Post Office also opened a case investigation into the production safety issue of Polar Rabbit. Strong supervision led to a decline in competition intensity in June. It can be seen that the competent authorities are still firm in their requirements for anti-domestic scrutiny and high-quality development of the industry.

The bank believes that the strength and sustainability of the industry's backlash is expected to exceed expectations this year. Although there have been short-term price fluctuations, this will not change the long-term trend of the industry. The advance increase reported by Tongda also verified the effectiveness of anti-domestic sales. Among them, Yuantong expects net profit deducted from non-return to mother for the first half of the year to increase by 72%-89% year-on-year, Shentong by 118%-143%, and Yunda by 84%-117%.

Risk warning: the industry price war intensifies; the duration of anti-domestic demand is lower than expected; labor costs are rising; policy changes, etc.