UBS: Gold's medium-term upward trend remains unchanged, and the target price for this year is 4675 US dollars per ounce

The Zhitong Finance App learned that UBS released a report saying that since the beginning of this week, gold prices have rebounded steadily, driving Hong Kong and mainland gold stocks to rise by about 20% in three days. The bank pointed out that investment sentiment in the gold market is gradually picking up, mainly due to lower than expected US non-farm payrolls data and weakening inflation data, while both CPI and PPI continue to decline. However, in previous months, the market continued to be constrained by the geographical conflict in the Middle East, which boosted oil prices and further increased inflation expectations, causing investors' concerns about “maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period of time,” which became the main resistance to suppressing gold prices.

It is worth noting that the price of gold has recently been repeatedly tugged at the 4,000 US dollars/ounce mark, and after falling to this position several times, it has been accepted to buy. Recent gold price trends suggest that this level may be forming support. The UBS global team is still optimistic about the medium term outlook for gold. It is expected that the price of gold will rise to 4,675 US dollars/ounce and 4,800 US dollars/ounce in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

UBS gold strategy analyst Joni Teves predicts that the price of gold is expected to rise further from the current price before the end of this year. In his view, portfolio diversification remains a key driver of gold demand among the broader investor base. Macro uncertainty is still high, and he believes investors are seeking to build portfolios that can remain resilient under various outcome scenarios. This helps explain why demand for gold is strong even when the opportunity cost of holding gold is high.

Furthermore, Joni Teves said that the trend of diversified allocation of reserve assets by central banks has not changed, and official purchases will continue to provide bottom support for gold prices. According to the latest data, the People's Bank of China has taken advantage of the opportunity to increase its gold holdings during the period when the gold price was fixed at the 4,000 US dollar mark in June.