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    How Investors Are Reacting To Ardelyx (ARDX) Hedge Fund Buying Despite Medicare Setback

    Simply Wall St·07/22/2026 19:25:14
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    • In recent months, Ardelyx has drawn attention as Wall Street forecasts a shift from losses to profits, supported by strong Ibsrela prescription growth and long-dated patents, even as the company lost its appeal for separate Medicare payments on dialysis drug Xphozah.
    • An interesting angle is that hedge funds have been increasing their positions in Ardelyx despite the Medicare setback, suggesting institutional investors remain focused on the company’s earnings turnaround potential and management’s long-term sales ambitions for Ibsrela.
    • We’ll now explore how this improving earnings outlook, underpinned by Ibsrela’s momentum, may affect Ardelyx’s existing investment narrative.

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    Ardelyx Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Ardelyx, you need to believe Ibsrela can carry the business from consistent losses toward sustained profitability, while Xphozah contributes despite its Medicare setback. The recent loss of the Xphozah payment appeal keeps reimbursement risk front and center, but the immediate earnings catalyst still hinges on upcoming results that confirm Ibsrela’s prescription strength and validate Wall Street’s profit swing expectations.

    One of the most relevant recent developments here is Ardelyx reaffirming its 2026 revenue guidance, including US$410–US$430 million for Ibsrela and US$110–US$120 million for Xphozah. Against the backdrop of rising hedge fund ownership, this guidance anchors the near term earnings turnaround story and frames how much room there is for upside or disappointment around the next earnings report.

    But while Ibsrela’s rise is encouraging, investors should also be aware that Ardelyx’s dependence on just two tenapanor based products means...

    Read the full narrative on Ardelyx (it's free!)

    Ardelyx's narrative projects $1.0 billion revenue and $317.0 million earnings by 2029.

    Uncover how Ardelyx's forecasts yield a $16.33 fair value, a 221% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ARDX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ARDX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were previously modeling about US$1.1 billion in 2029 revenue and roughly US$425.8 million in earnings, which is far more upbeat than consensus. In light of the recent Medicare setback and shifting expectations around Xphozah, you should recognize that these bullish views might need revisiting and that reasonable people can reach very different conclusions about Ardelyx’s future.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Ardelyx - why the stock might be worth just $13.00!

    Form Your Own Verdict

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.