Has the “pricing power” of Hong Kong stocks changed hands? The return of Wall Street, a revolution in the Hong Kong stock investment banking landscape

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Hong Kong stocks in 2026 are creating a confusing set of contrasts. In the first half of the year, IPO fund-raising surged 92% year on year, and the primary market was hot; at the same time, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 9.5% in a single month in March, and the short selling ratio reached a historical extreme value of 28.91% in May. The net outflow of foreign capital continued, and the secondary market lost more blood. Why did prosperity and loss of blood occur at the same time in the same market?

To understand this paradox, we must look at an underlying variable overlooked by most investors — a quiet shift in investment banks' pricing power. In 2026, a “FUSE meltdown” campaign initiated by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission broke the 2023-2025 dominant pattern of Chinese investment banks, and foreign investors are quietly taking back the pricing power of the Hong Kong stock refinancing market. However, this has evolved into a delicate situation of foreign investment “taking positions and underwriting and capital withdrawal”, which directly affects all investors holding positions in Hong Kong stocks in technology.

Part.01 Major reshuffle of investment banking seats

In 2025, CITIC Securities topped the list of Hong Kong stock investment banks with a total underwriting scale of over HK$90 billion. The home market advantage of Chinese institutions seemed as strong as gold.

However, as we enter 2026, everything suddenly took a turn in March.

The Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission and the Independent Commission Against Corruption launched a special enforcement operation codenamed “FUSE Disruption”, focusing on cracking down on the grey channel of cross-border placement and localized trading models by Chinese institutions. CITIC Securities was one of the targets under investigation.

At the same time, Infinity Capital, which focuses on the hard technology circuit and supports the financing of many sanctioned companies, was also simultaneously involved, casting a shadow over the financing prospects for related projects.

Under the regulatory thunder of the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission, CITIC Securities's IPO sponsorship scale in the first half of 2026 fell to fourth place in the market, and placement refinancing fell to ninth.

The power vacuum was immediately filled by foreign investment. According to data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the top three refinancing underwriting scales for the first half of the year were: Merrill Lynch at HK$12.546 billion, CICC at HK$11.647 billion, and Morgan Stanley at HK$11.358 billion. Foreign investors occupied three of the four global coordinator seats in this round of distribution during the Ningde Era.

In the judgment of the China Financial Capital Research Institute, the “meltdown” operation pressed the pause button for the Chinese investment banking business, and this just gave foreign investors a key opportunity to completely get rid of their marginalized role in the past few years.”

Part.02 The liquidity trap of foreign investors “taking positions without paying”

Why is the battle for pricing power so critical?

For technology companies, refinancing is a more important lifeline for development than IPOs. Technological innovation naturally has the attributes of high investment, long cycle, and high risk. The ability to continuously refinance directly determines whether an enterprise can maintain sufficient ammunition in competition. Whoever has mastered the pricing logic of refinancing will stifle the development and growth of technology companies.

The return of foreign capital has provided companies with international endorsements and higher market recognition — something that issuers are happy to see. However, a dangerous rift is forming.

Under the double pressure of high interest rates on US bonds and strong siphoning of AI stocks, the NASDAQ single exchange raised $129.3 billion in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year surge of more than 500%; the scale of Hong Kong stock refinancing declined by 34.38% during the same period. Global capital is moving to US stocks at a speed that can be seen with the naked eye.

The role played by foreign investment banks in the Hong Kong stock market has led to a subtle and dangerous split — underwriting is fully occupied, yet long-term capital continues to be withdrawn.

The business side grabbed positions and the capital side left the market. This contradictory pattern triggered a chain reaction: the Hang Seng Index fell 6.92% in a single month in March, and Hang Seng Technology's decline widened to 9.5%; short selling sentiment continued to be high from May to June. On the closing day of June 30, the short selling amount reached HK$57.52 billion, accounting for 20.5% of the stabilized pressure warning line, and technology stocks broke out of the K-type market.

A grain of ash from the times, falling on the head of an enterprise, is just a mountain. When foreign investment banks have a say in placement pricing, an unavoidable problem arises: in order to quickly complete placement and lock in underwriting revenue, foreign investors often tend to attract buyers with large discounts, but large discounts directly dilute existing shareholders' rights and even slow down stock price performance.

The data supports this concern. In the first half of 2026, the stock prices of nearly 30 foreign-owned refinancing projects (that is, no Chinese investment banks participated or listed) all experienced varying degrees of decline after the placement was completed. For example, reshaping energy fell by as much as 60%, and Jiantao Laminated Board also fell by about 40%.

A structural dilemma where foreign-led pricing and no money is being spent to protect the market is profoundly affecting every investor holding positions in Hong Kong stocks in technology.

Part.03 What judgment anchors did investors leave?

Looking ahead from the historical perspective, with FUSE regulations implemented, the hierarchical pattern of foreign-led and Chinese-owned business contraction will still exist for some time to come.

The landscape has been reshaped, and investors need to recalibrate their cognitive coordinates.

When foreign investors return to the position of global coordinator, the valuation reference frame for Hong Kong technology stocks will be closer to the international market, rather than simply driven by south-bound financial sentiment. This means that the traditional way of playing Hong Kong stocks requires introducing more global perspectives.

When the fragmented pattern of “business position and capital leaving the market” persists, an abnormal rise in the short selling ratio often issues risk warnings earlier than the index itself. Tracking the flow of foreign capital and short selling trends is a key tool for grasping the top and bottom of the phase.

It is worth noting that the continued explosion of the AI hardware industry is currently the most noteworthy hedging variable, and may also become a “ballast stone” for Hong Kong stock financing. If the AI hardware boom cycle continues, the Hong Kong stock financing ecosystem will receive strong support, and there will also be a phased rebound window for Chinese investment banks.

In summary, the Hong Kong stock market is undergoing a profound transformation reshaped by regulation and global liquidity. The battle for pricing power is at the core of this transformation. The story of Hong Kong stocks in 2026 is not only a report card of the IPO boom, but also a power game about who can price China's best technology assets.

And this game has only just begun.