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    Could Rapid Upward EPS Revisions Reshape Cleveland-Cliffs' (CLF) Steel Margin Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·07/22/2026 12:29:37
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    • In the recent past, analysts projected that Cleveland-Cliffs would report a quarterly loss of $0.18 per share with revenues of $5.15 billion, both improving compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
    • Over the last month, analysts lifted their consensus earnings forecast for the quarter by about 45%, signaling a rapid reassessment of Cleveland-Cliffs’ near-term profitability.
    • We’ll now examine how this sharp upward revision in earnings expectations could influence Cleveland-Cliffs’ existing investment narrative around steel demand and margins.

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    Cleveland-Cliffs Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Cleveland-Cliffs, you have to believe its integrated steel model and auto exposure can still work despite recent losses and industry pressure. The sharp 45% upward revision in near term EPS expectations heightens focus on Q2 2026 results as the key short term catalyst, but it does not materially change the biggest current risk: policy or market shifts that could weaken pricing and margins for its largely blast furnace based operations.

    In that context, the Q1 2026 result, with a net loss of US$237,000,000 on US$4,922,000,000 of sales, is an important reference point for these upgraded forecasts. It showed year on year improvement in losses but no return to profitability, so the coming Q2 print will test whether analysts are simply catching up to operational progress or overreacting to short term factors that may not offset structural risks like decarbonization and the move toward electric arc furnaces.

    Yet against this more hopeful earnings reset, investors should also be aware of how quickly sentiment could swing if...

    Read the full narrative on Cleveland-Cliffs (it's free!)

    Cleveland-Cliffs' narrative projects $22.7 billion revenue and $784.5 million earnings by 2029. This requires 6.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.0 billion earnings increase from -$1.2 billion today.

    Uncover how Cleveland-Cliffs' forecasts yield a $10.86 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CLF 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    CLF 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the lowest analysts were already cautious, assuming revenue of about US$20,800,000,000 and earnings of only US$550,500,000 by 2029, so compared with the more constructive consensus and the recent EPS upgrades, their narrative highlights how sharply views can differ and why this latest revision could still shift both the bearish decarbonization risk story and the more optimistic tariff and vertical integration catalyst in ways you should explore further.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Cleveland-Cliffs - why the stock might be worth as much as 63% more than the current price!

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.