US stock outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes plummeted, oil prices rose, Google and Tesla announced financial reports after the market

Pre-market market trends

1. On July 22 (Wednesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.16%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.37%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.90%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.27%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 1.28%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.86%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.15%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 3.53% to $87.32 per barrel. Brent crude rose 3.86% to $94.52 per barrel.

Market news

Middle East conflict escalates! On the evening of July 21, EST, and in the early morning of July 22, Iran time, the US military launched military attacks on many parts of Iran for the 11th night in a row. In response, Iranian forces attacked US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain. According to reports, in the early morning of the 22nd, the air defense system in Tehran, the capital of Iran, started continuously, but up to now, Iran has not disclosed any casualties or property damage. Some Iranian analysts pointed out that the deep-seated distrust between Iran and the US, pressure from Israel, and internal US political issues have led to limitations and fragility in the way Iran and the US can use negotiations to ease the situation. Currently, there is no sign of easing in the new round of conflict between Iran and the US, and the game between the two sides over the Strait of Hormuz has also led to continued turbulence in the entire Middle East region. Furthermore, US Secretary of State Rubio said that the US is still willing to resolve the Iranian crisis through diplomatic channels, but currently Iran has not shown a will to engage in serious negotiations.

1.65 trillion off-sheet bomb! The “invisible debt” of the big five tech giants has soared eight times in four years. Is the AI arms race likely to spawn the next liquidity disaster? The crazy “arms race” of America's top five tech giants on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is spawning a “hidden debt empire” that far exceeds book debt. Recently, an analysis of the latest financial footnotes from Google (GOOGL.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), Meta (META.US), and Oracle (ORCL.US) shows that the total “hidden debt” accumulated by these five companies through long-term procurement commitments, data center leases, etc., has swelled to 1.65 trillion US dollars, which has surged eight times over the past four years. This massive off-balance sheet obligation has made Wall Street and global regulators increasingly worried that once AI demand falls short of expectations, these future payment promises hidden in footnotes may turn into a “debt bomb” that eats up cash flow in a very short time.

It is rumored that the US plans to introduce new tariffs by Friday, continuing the 10% temporary global tariff that is about to expire. According to people familiar with the matter, US President Trump is preparing to impose new tariffs on products from dozens of economies by Friday. The move is aimed at ensuring that the temporary 10% global tariff can still be maintained after the expiration of the temporary 10% global tariff. According to reports, the tax rate for the new round of tariffs is between 10% and 12.5%. Earlier this year, the US Supreme Court rejected Trump's previous global tariff policy, and Trump then imposed a 10% global tariff. Trump's temporary tariffs expire on Friday. If a new round of tariffs is implemented at that time, the White House can avoid a gap between the two. The plan has yet to be finalized and is subject to change. According to reports, as the November midterm elections approach, Trump's push forward with the latest proposal will solidify his tariff commitments, despite voters' concerns about the cost of living. Critics believe import taxes will raise the price of consumer goods, but Trump and other senior officials say tariffs are necessary to rebuild America's manufacturing strength and protect domestic industries.

Trump's “heavy hammer” on generic drugs: the countdown to 100% tariffs is two years, then double to 200% in 2029. Trump said that generic drug manufacturers will be given two years to transfer production to the mainland of the United States, otherwise they will face 100% import tariffs starting August 2028. The tax rate will be further doubled to 200% one year later, in August 2029. Trump said in the post: “The purpose of this move is to 'return' generic drug production to the US and punish companies that fail to build factories and purchase equipment within the specified period.” On the eve of the 2026 midterm elections, Trump sees drug costs as a key variable affecting people's affordability. He has long complained that American consumers pay far higher drug prices than overseas markets, and has tried many times to reduce this price difference. Recently, its government also launched a direct marketing platform for discounted drugs for consumers, named “TrumpRx.” Recently, the White House has repeatedly set delayed dates for the entry into force of tariffs, with devastating consequences in the near future, as a bargaining chip for future negotiations with various countries and companies.

Individual stock news

US technology stocks were lower before the market. Before the US stock market on Wednesday, as of press release, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) fell more than 6%, Micron Technology (MU.US) and Western Digital (WDC.US) fell nearly 4%, SanDisk (SNDK.US) and Seagate (STX.US) fell more than 3%; AMD (AMD.US), TSM.US (TSM.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US) fell more than 2%, and Broadcom (AVGO.US) and Asmack (AMSL.US) were down nearly 2% Nvidia (NVDA.US) fell more than 1 %; Optical Communications stocks generally declined, with Astera Labs (ALAB.US) falling more than 4%, and Lumentum (LITE.US) and Mywell Technology (MRVL.US) falling nearly 3%.

The market was “empty and happy”! SK Hynix (SKHY.US) refuted the rumor that it had acquired the Intel (INTC.US) Ohio fab, and 100 billion mergers and acquisitions went haywire. SK Hynix officially denied market rumors on Wednesday that it is in talks to acquire Intel's New Albany Semiconductor Campus in Ohio. The company clarified through official regulatory documents submitted by the Korea Exchange (DART) that although it has been evaluating global investment opportunities, it “has neither sought nor decided to acquire Intel's plant and fab in Ohio.” Although the deal was eventually proven to be a false rumor, the reason the market paid close attention to it is that this assumption perfectly fits two key contradictions in the current restructuring of the global semiconductor industry chain — the storage giant's “North American manufacturing anxiety” and the “funding gap” of Intel's foundry business. Behind this market reaction is investors' strong expectation that SK Hynix will accelerate its manufacturing layout in the US.

Trump's push for “Made in America” is driving up costs, and TSM.US warns that expanding overseas production will erode profit margins for a long time. Pressure from US President Trump to manufacture advanced semiconductors in the US is driving up the costs and squeezing profit margins of TSMC, the world's largest chip maker. After Trump returned to power in 2025, TSMC has announced a total investment commitment of 200 billion US dollars to the US, including an additional $100 billion investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing and packaging facilities in the US announced last week. TSMC said that despite being driven by the AI boom, strong earnings this quarter were still affected by overseas expansion. TSMC CFO Huang Renzhao said that the increase in gross margin was higher than expected, but was offset by the dilution effect brought about by overseas fabs. He added that as overseas fab projects “climb in capacity”, profit margins will be further diluted in the “years” ahead.

New orders surpassed 60 billion US dollars, backlog orders reached a record high, and ultra-micro computers (SMCI.US) surged ahead of the market. According to the preliminary results released by Ultramicrocomputer, its backlog of orders reached a record high due to the amount of new orders over 60 billion US dollars for the quarter — mainly due to continued strong demand for advanced AI servers. These new orders “are expected to be delivered in the next few quarters,” which is a positive sign for future revenue and indicates that the company is winning more contracts. The company also said that the gross margin for the fiscal quarter ending June 30 is expected to be between 15% and 17%, which is a better-than-expected performance indicating that the company is making progress in selling high-margin products. The company also said that revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter will fall at the lower end of the previous guidance range of 11 billion to 12.5 billion US dollars, while analysts' average expectations are 11.8 billion US dollars. As of press release, US stocks of ultra-microcomputers rose nearly 16% before the market on Wednesday.

AT&T (T.US)'s Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, speeding up the pace of share repurchases. According to financial reports, AT&T Q2 revenue increased 2.3% year over year to US$31.6 billion, falling short of market expectations of US$31.77 billion; adjusted earnings per share were US$0.65, better than market expectations of US$0.59. The company plans to maintain its current annual dividend level of $1.11 per share and make approximately $24 billion in share repurchases. The company still expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.25 to $2.35 in 2026, with a median forecast range of $2.30 lower than market expectations of $2.32. As of press release, AT&T's pre-market shares rose more than 4% on Wednesday.

Fluctuating market conditions spawned a boom in trading, and the second-quarter profit and revenue of Yingtou Securities (IBKR.US) both exceeded expectations. The US online broker Yingtou Securities released a strong financial report for the second quarter of 2026 after the market on Tuesday. Thanks to continued active customer trading activities, significant expansion of margin loans, and steady growth in net interest income, the company's revenue and profit both exceeded Wall Street expectations. According to financial reports, the net revenue of Yingtou Securities in the second quarter reached about 1.9 billion US dollars, a sharp increase of 28% from the 1.48 billion US dollars in the same period last year, and also significantly higher than the general market forecast of 1.79 billion US dollars; the adjusted diluted earnings per share were 0.69 US dollars, higher than 0.51 US dollars in the same period last year, and clearly exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.64 US dollars.

Performance Forecast

Thursday morning: Google (GOOGL.US), Tesla (TSLA.US), Texas Instruments (TXN.US)

Thursday pre-market: Nokia (NOK.US), ST (STM.US), Total (TTE.US), Southwest Airlines (LUV.US), T-Mobile US (TMUS.US), United Pacific (UNP.US), American Airlines (AAL.US)